73%. Those are the chances of winning when you get the lead runner on in the bottom of the ninth of a tied game, which is what the Rangers did in yesterday's game against the Blue Jays. They also failed to end it that inning, of course. Bunting, by the way, lowers the chances to 72%, if you wanted more fuel for that fire.
The Rangers would see those exact expectations for victory -- 73% -- three more times, with the lead-off runner reaching first. Four straight innings, one of the best offenses in baseball failed in a situation where an average offense can expect to fail in only about one out of every four attempts. When Ian Kinsler reached third in the 11th, their chances got as high as 84% without ending the game.
Yesterday's game was set up to be one of the most frustrating games a fan can possibly be expected to watch. Of course, we now know the Rangers failed repeatedly just so they could set up something extraordinary.
Their chances of victory dropped as low as 11% in the 13th, before opening the inning at 12%. A fifth straight inning of the lead-off hitter reaching first resulted only in a 22% chance this time, but Elvis Andrus's double brought it up to 48%, and the next hit, obviously, took it all the way to 100%.
Beautiful percentages. The chart after the jump probably looks like your heart felt, but isn't all that frustration worth it if you get to see that brand of incredible?
Source: FanGraphs