After a four-run win on the road to maintain the league's best record and a multi-game lead over everyone in the division, if you were to head over to Baseball Prospectus's Playoff Odds Report, your already-high hopes might just soar.
↵By their estimation, the Rangers are already slightly better than 70% to win the American League West, with a better than 90% shot to at least be one of the two Wild Card teams. Both figures are the highest of anyone in baseball.
↵That probably looks a little huge, but it shouldn't. Yes, there is a very long season still to go. Yes, the Angels still could overcome the early deficit, but a 30% shot is large enough that no one should be too surprised if it happens.
↵Still, Anaheim is already 3.5 back of Texas, and they have not exactly been losing to good teams, with four losses to the Royals and Twins. BP's PECOTA forecast -- like most -- had the Angels and Rangers very close, with a slight edge to Texas. If that's accurate, Anaheim would have to play better than they really are and/or the Rangers worse over the next 154 games to make up that ground. That's certainly possible, just not very likely. The Playoff Odds Report reflects that.
↵It also might be too conservative, since Cool Standings has Texas closer to 76% to win the division at this point. Both expect them to have the best record in the league, though not by much in the case of BP.
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