Clay Davenport updated his new forecast system today, with a lengthy explanation I had to read two or three times just to get.
↵I'll spare you the explanation because you can read it yourself. What's important here is, similar to his previous iterations, the Rangers are the best team in baseball in his 2012 estimate. Texas wins 97 games here, better than anyone else by five games.
↵I think we'd be fine with that?
↵He also has nifty links to spreadsheets featuring every batter and pitcher. Yu Darvish comes out looking fantastic with a 3.27 ERA, 183 strikeouts to 57 walks, and an overall elite-level season from a pitcher. Neftali Feliz also checks in with a sub-4 ERA, but fewer strikeouts and innings pitched, for a more mediocre season. It still supports the exact rotation Texas is going to, and projects Texas as the best pitching staff in the American League.
↵It also has them as the best offense. That's generally a good way to be the best team in baseball. It is somewhat down on Josh Hamilton, Nelson Cruz, and Mike Napoli staying healthy, or Michael Young having another awesome year at the plate, but only Mitch Moreland in the lineup looks particularly below-average, with All-Star caliber years forecasted for Ian Kinsler, Elvis Andrus, and Adrian Beltre. Leonys Martin is given a .742 OPS as a rookie
↵No real way to know how much confidence to put in to his work, but another bright baseball mind putting himself towards improving baseball forecasting is never a bad thing. It's fun to look through, though, and totally cheap as free.
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