SB Nations baseball statistical analysis blog Beyond the Boxscore has been regularly updating their forecasted probabilities of each playoff team winning a championship, and this is how they looked following the divisional round: Texas way, way on top.
Texas, in fact, comes out not far from a coin flip to win it all, with Detroit way behind them at just over one-in-five. The Rangers were arguably the best team in baseball in 2011, though the Yankees and Phillies were good enough to have arguments of their own. However, both those teams are gone, and the Rangers are now clearly the best team remaining. This is perhaps even underrating the Rangers, as it is based heavily on the team they put forth on average over 162 games; that team had a far weaker bullpen and frequent injuries that are less likely to pop up in October. Of course, the Rangers' chances have gone up even farther since this update, as they now have the lead in their series.â†µ
The usual caveat of "being favored does not guarantee a win" is now applied just in case it has to be here. After all, while a 43% shot of winning it all might lead everyone else by a ton, it is still claiming a title to be less likely than missing out.â†µ