The World Series just ended last week but we're already into the offseason and looking at the 2011 teams. Dan Szymborski has been projecting teams through the ZiPS projection system for years and has already started work on his 2011 projections, going in order of lowest payroll to highest for releasing his projections.â†µ
The Texas Rangers 2011 projections were released earlier today. The projections look about what I would have expected them to look like, with the exception of some of the outfield defense. Nelson Cruz is better than average, with the highest DRS on the Rangers team with 11 and a UZR/150 of 10.6 should be better than average range in right field with a below average error rating (100 is an average error rating, with the lower the number being better).â†µ
Ian Kinsler is also better than given credit for defensively, with a UZR/150 of 4.1 and a DRS of 8 in 905 innings to go along with his 22 DRS in 2009, yet he's AV/116 for the 2011 season. He's probably too kind to Michael Young at third, too. Young had a -13 DRS, which is pretty poor to me. Plus, it's Michael Young.â†µ
The pitching looks about what you'd expect it to look like, though it might be a bit harsh on Feliz's regression. He has Scott Feldman bouncing back to be about a league average pitcher - and I think that sounds about right. Feldman is always going to be up and down to me.â†µ
What say you about the 2011 ZiPS Rangers? Obviously, they'll make some moves - Cliff Lee and Vladimir Guerrero may not be with the team next year, but as of today, this is what ZiPS projects the Rangers to look like.