Ian Kinsler's mammoth home run in game three to give the Rangers a lead with just six outs to go was the third biggest moment in terms of Win Probability Added in the playoffs. At the time, I was expecting to soon be calling it the most dramatic and important moment in Rangers history. A huge tie-breaking, game-winning home run in a clinching game from a player having an incredible series.
Instead, it goes right with most of Juan Gonzalez's home runs as a great moment for an ultimately losing effort.
After the jump is a top ten list of the most significant WPA moments in the Texas Rangers' playoff history, updated as new moments make the list. Interestingly, Kinsler's home run knocked his home run on Thursday off the list.
1. 1996, ALDS Game 2: Juan Gonzalez homers to left with two outs in the top of the third, scoring three. The Rangers take a 4-1 lead, jumping their win expectancy to 74%, but they go on to lose. 25% WPA
2. 1996, ALDS Game 1: Juan Gonzalez homers down the left field line with no outs in the top of the fourth, scoring three. The Rangers take a 3-1 lead, jumping their win expectancy to 71%, and they go on to win. 21% WPA
3. 2010, ALDS Game 3: Ian Kinsler homers to right field with no outs in the bottom of the seventh, scoring one. The Rangers take a 2-1 lead, jumping their win expectancy to 78%, but they go on to lose. 19% WPA
4. 2010, ALDS Game 2: Michael Young homers to centerfield with one out in the top of the fifth, scoring three. The Rangers take a 5-0 lead, jumping their win expectancy to 92%, and they go on to win. 15% WPA
5. 1996, ALDS Game 3: Mickey Tettleton works a walk with no outs and the bases empty in the bottom of the ninth. The Rangers are down 2-3 and their win expectancy jumps to 38%, but they go on to lose. 14% WPA
6. 1996, ALDS Game 1: Dean Palmer homers down the left field line with one out in the fourth, scoring two. The Rangers take a 5-1 lead, jumping their win expectancy to 84%, and they go on to win. 13% WPA
7. 2010, ALDS Game 1: Jeff Francoeur doubles with no outs in the top of the second, scoring one. The Rangers take a 1-0 lead, jumping their win expectancy to 65%, and they go on to win. 12% WPA
8. 1996, ALDS Game 2: With the bases loaded in the bottom of the eighth, Darryl Hamilton catches a Mariano Duncan fly ball in center, then doubles up Andy Fox at first, ending the inning. The Rangers stay tied at four, jumping their win expectancy to 50%, but they go on to lose. 12% WPA
9. 1999, ALDS Game 2: Juan Gonzalez homers to left with one out in the fourth, scoring one. The Rangers take a 1-0 lead, jumping their win expectancy to 59%, but they go on to lose. 12% WPA
10. 1996, ALDS Game 3: With runners at the corners in the top of the fourth, Bernie Williams is caught stealing and Tim Raines is thrown out at home, ending the inning. The Rangers hold on to a 1-0 deficit, jumping their win expectancy to 45%, but they go on to lose. 12% WPA