I got this idea from Mr. Joey Matschulat in his recent Baseball Time in Arlington article about Michael Young's home run. Since the Rangers' playoff history is nice and easily sortable, I thought it might be fun to look at the biggest moments in Texas Rangers' favor from the post season according to Win Probability Added (WPA) at Baseball-Reference. You can see an example of one game here an an explanation of WPA here. As new plays make the list, I'll update it.
The list comes after the jump!
1. 1996, ALDS Game 2: Juan Gonzalez homers to left with two outs in the third, scoring three. The Rangers take a 4-1 lead, jumping their win expectancy to 74%, but they go on to lose. 25% WPA
2. 1996, ALDS Game 1: Juan Gonzalez homers down the left field line with no outs in the fourth, scoring three. The Rangers take a 3-1 lead, jumping their win expectancy to 71%, and they go on to win. 21% WPA
3. 2010, ALDS Game 2: Michael Young homers to centerfield with one out in the top of the fifth, scoring three. The Rangers take a 5-0 lead, jumping their win expectancy to 92%, and they go on to win. 15% WPA
4. 1996, ALDS Game 3: Mickey Tettleton works a walk with no outs and the bases empty in the bottom of the ninth. The Rangers are down 2-3 and their win expectancy jumps to 38%, but they go on to lose. 14% WPA
5. 1996, ALDS Game 1: Dean Palmer homers down the left field line with one out in the fourth, scoring two. The Rangers take a 5-1 lead, jumping their win expectancy to 84%, and they go on to win. 13% WPA
6. 2010, ALDS Game 1: Jeff Francoeur doubles with no outs in the top of the second, scoring one. The Rangers take a 1-0 lead, jumping their win expectancy to 65%, and they go on to win. 12% WPA
7. 1996, ALDS Game 2: With the bases loaded in the bottom of the eighth, Darryl Hamilton catches a Mariano Duncan fly ball in center, then doubles up Andy Fox at first, ending the inning. The Rangers stay tied at four, jumping their win expectancy to 50%, but they go on to lose. 12% WPA
8. 1999, ALDS Game 2: Juan Gonzalez homers to left with one out in the fourth, scoring one. The Rangers take a 1-0 lead, jumping their win expectancy to 59%, but they go on to lose. 12% WPA
9. 1996, ALDS Game 3: With runners at the corners in the top of the fourth, Bernie Williams is caught stealing and Tim Raines is thrown out at home, ending the inning. The Rangers hold on to a 1-0 deficit, jumping their win expectancy to 45%, but they go on to lose. 12% WPA
10. 2010, ALDS Game 2: Ian Kinsler homers to left field with two outs in the fourth, scoring one. The Rangers take a 2-0 lead, jumping their win expectancy to 69%, and they go on to win. 11% WPA
Rodriguez and Gonzalez's ninth inning walks in game four of 1996 and Lee Stevens' fifth inning double in game two of 1999 (which didn't even score a run) have now been bumped off of the list in the last couple of days.
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