As we wait to see who the Rangers will play in the World Series (I actually just said that!), here's one more update on the top ten moments by Win Probability Added in the history of the Rangers' playoff trips to date.
Vlad's double from Friday night ends up being pretty high. Two of the top moments are now the Rangers making their opponents pay for an intentional walk.
I actually go back and forth on which moment I'll consider more iconic for the franchise down the line. The Molina home run was from a more maligned source, it was in a game I thought was much more important at the time, it was a much bigger swing in win expectancy and it came while trailing. The Vlad double, however, was in the clinching game; it broke the tie to put the Rangers a few innings from going to the World Series.
I think I'll stick with Molina's blast, but I think there's an argument to be made for Vlad.
1. 2010, ALCS Game Game 4: Bengie Molina homers down the left field line with two outs in the top of the sixth, scoring three. The Rangers take a 5-3 lead, jumping their win expectancy to 73%, and they go on to win. 40% WPA
2. 1996, ALDS Game 2: Juan Gonzalez homers to left with two outs in the top of the third, scoring three. The Rangers take a 4-1 lead, jumping their win expectancy to 74%, but they go on to lose. 25% WPA
3. 2010, ALCS Game 6: Vladimir Guerrero doubles to center field with two outs in the bottom of the fifth, scoring two. The Rangers take a 3-1 lead, jumping their win expectancy to 79%, and they go on to win. 23% WPA
4. 1996, ALDS Game 1: Juan Gonzalez homers down the left field line with no outs in the top of the fourth, scoring three. The Rangers take a 3-1 lead, jumping their win expectancy to 71%, and they go on to win. 21% WPA
5. 2010, ALDS Game 3: Ian Kinsler homers to left field with no outs in the bottom of the seventh, scoring one. The Rangers take a 2-1 lead, jumping their win expectancy to 78%, but they go on to lose. 19% WPA
6. 2010, ALCS Game 3: Josh Hamilton homers to right field with one out in the top of the first, scoring two. The Rangers take a 2-0 lead, jumping their win expectancy to 76%, and they go on to win. 16% WPA
7. 2010, ALDS Game 2: Michael Young homers to centerfield with one out in the top of the fifth, scoring three. The Rangers take a 5-0 lead, jumping their win expectancy to 92%, and they go on to win. 15% WPA
8. 2010, ALCS Game 1: Mitch Moreland singles to right field on a ground ball with the bases empty and no outs in the bottom of the ninth. The Rangers are down 6-5 and their win expectancy jumps to 36%, but they go on to lose. 14% WPA
9. 1996, ALDS Game 3: Mickey Tettleton works a walk with no outs and the bases empty in the bottom of the ninth. The Rangers are down 2-3 and their win expectancy jumps to 38%, but they go on to lose. 14% WPA
10. 2010, ALCS Game 1: Josh Hamilton homers to right field with no outs in the bottom of the first, scoring three. The Rangers take a 3-0 lead, jumping their win expectancy to 80%, but they go on to lose. 13% WPA
11. 1996, ALDS Game 1: Dean Palmer homers down the left field line with one out in the fourth, scoring two. The Rangers take a 5-1 lead, jumping their win expectancy to 84%, and they go on to win. 13% WPA
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