Another update to the all time list of biggest Rangers moments in the playoffs, at least in terms of Win Probability Added.
In fact, Josh Hamilton's first inning home run was the biggest swing in win expectancy in a win that wasn't hit by Juan Gonzalez. It was a bigger swing than his game one home run because there was already an out, by the way.
I find it funny how big that home run looked until the 9th inning. Of course, without it, we may see Mariano Rivera in the 9th and the game might have ended up a lot closer. Thanks, Josh!
1. 1996, ALDS Game 2: Juan Gonzalez homers to left with two outs in the top of the third, scoring three. The Rangers take a 4-1 lead, jumping their win expectancy to 74%, but they go on to lose. 25% WPA
2. 1996, ALDS Game 1: Juan Gonzalez homers down the left field line with no outs in the top of the fourth, scoring three. The Rangers take a 3-1 lead, jumping their win expectancy to 71%, and they go on to win. 21% WPA
3. 2010, ALDS Game 3: Ian Kinsler homers to left field with no outs in the bottom of the seventh, scoring one. The Rangers take a 2-1 lead, jumping their win expectancy to 78%, but they go on to lose. 19% WPA
4. 2010, ALCS Game 3: Josh Hamilton homers to right field with one out in the top of the first, scoring two. The Rangers take a 2-0 lead, jumping their win expectancy to 76%, and they go on to win. 16% WPA
5. 2010, ALDS Game 2: Michael Young homers to centerfield with one out in the top of the fifth, scoring three. The Rangers take a 5-0 lead, jumping their win expectancy to 92%, and they go on to win. 15% WPA
6. 2010, ALCS Game 1: Mitch Moreland singles to right field on a ground ball with the bases empty and no outs in the bottom of the ninth. The Rangers are down 6-5 and their win expectancy jumps to 36%, but they go on to lose. 14% WPA
7. 1996, ALDS Game 3: Mickey Tettleton works a walk with no outs and the bases empty in the bottom of the ninth. The Rangers are down 2-3 and their win expectancy jumps to 38%, but they go on to lose. 14% WPA
8. 2010, ALCS Game 1: Josh Hamilton homers to right field with no outs in the bottom of the first, scoring three. The Rangers take a 3-0 lead, jumping their win expectancy to 80%, but they go on to lose. 13% WPA
9. 1996, ALDS Game 1: Dean Palmer homers down the left field line with one out in the fourth, scoring two. The Rangers take a 5-1 lead, jumping their win expectancy to 84%, and they go on to win. 13% WPA
10. 2010, ALDS Game 1: Jeff Francoeur doubles with no outs in the top of the second, scoring one. The Rangers take a 1-0 lead, jumping their win expectancy to 65%, and they go on to win. 12% WPA
11. 1996, ALDS Game 2: With the bases loaded in the bottom of the eighth, Darryl Hamilton catches a Mariano Duncan fly ball in center, then doubles up Andy Fox at first, ending the inning. The Rangers stay tied at four, jumping their win expectancy to 50%, but they go on to lose. 12% WPA
12. 1999, ALDS Game 2: Juan Gonzalez homers to left with one out in the fourth, scoring one. The Rangers take a 1-0 lead, jumping their win expectancy to 59%, but they go on to lose. 12% WPA
13. 1996, ALDS Game 3: With runners at the corners in the top of the fourth, Bernie Williams is caught stealing and Tim Raines is thrown out at home, ending the inning. The Rangers hold on to a 1-0 deficit, jumping their win expectancy to 45%, but they go on to lose. 12% WPA
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