We had two new additions to the Texas Rangers' list of all-time most positive post season moments in terms of Win Probability Added last night. Unfortunately, the game ended up being too painful and I didn't feel like updating.
It's still painful, but I think I can find the strength to update now. No big moments today, but I liked the game more.
Josh Hamilton's dramatic start to game one yesterday was good sixth on the list. Surprisingly, it was pushed down on the list before the game was even over. When Mitch Moreland grabbed a seeing-eye single off of Mariano Rivera to start the ninth, his contribution (by WPA) was a perctange point more meaningful than Hamilton's home run, putting him in a tie for 5th.
Since Baseball-Reference doesn't go to a decimal on their Win Expectancy charts, no one was bumped off the list, as there is actually a four-way tie for ninth place now. Getting on this list is getting harder, though. Before this season, a 10% contribution would have put you on. Now a first inning three-run blast barely clears the minimum for the top ten. David Murphy's home run tonight would have nearly made the list before this October and now it's not particularly close.
I'm still looking for one of those dramatic 40% or more-type swings that we can all point to and call the signature moment of the Texas Rangers franchise. For an explantion of WPA if you missed the last few postings, go here. The list comes after the jump.
1. 1996, ALDS Game 2: Juan Gonzalez homers to left with two outs in the top of the third, scoring three. The Rangers take a 4-1 lead, jumping their win expectancy to 74%, but they go on to lose. 25% WPA
2. 1996, ALDS Game 1: Juan Gonzalez homers down the left field line with no outs in the top of the fourth, scoring three. The Rangers take a 3-1 lead, jumping their win expectancy to 71%, and they go on to win. 21% WPA
3. 2010, ALDS Game 3: Ian Kinsler homers to right field with no outs in the bottom of the seventh, scoring one. The Rangers take a 2-1 lead, jumping their win expectancy to 78%, but they go on to lose. 19% WPA
4. 2010, ALDS Game 2: Michael Young homers to centerfield with one out in the top of the fifth, scoring three. The Rangers take a 5-0 lead, jumping their win expectancy to 92%, and they go on to win. 15% WPA
5. 2010, ALCS Game 1: Mitch Moreland singles to right field on a ground ball with the bases empty and no outs in the bottom of the ninth. The Rangers are down 6-5 and their win expectancy jumps to 36%, but they go on to lose. 14% WPA
6. 1996, ALDS Game 3: Mickey Tettleton works a walk with no outs and the bases empty in the bottom of the ninth. The Rangers are down 2-3 and their win expectancy jumps to 38%, but they go on to lose. 14% WPA
7. 2010, ALCS Game 1: Josh Hamilton homers to right field with no outs in the bottom of the first, scoring three. The Rangers take a 3-0 lead, jumping their win expectancy to 80%, but they go on to lose. 13% WPA
8. 1996, ALDS Game 1: Dean Palmer homers down the left field line with one out in the fourth, scoring two. The Rangers take a 5-1 lead, jumping their win expectancy to 84%, and they go on to win. 13% WPA
9. 2010, ALDS Game 1: Jeff Francoeur doubles with no outs in the top of the second, scoring one. The Rangers take a 1-0 lead, jumping their win expectancy to 65%, and they go on to win. 12% WPA
10. 1996, ALDS Game 2: With the bases loaded in the bottom of the eighth, Darryl Hamilton catches a Mariano Duncan fly ball in center, then doubles up Andy Fox at first, ending the inning. The Rangers stay tied at four, jumping their win expectancy to 50%, but they go on to lose. 12% WPA
11. 1999, ALDS Game 2: Juan Gonzalez homers to left with one out in the fourth, scoring one. The Rangers take a 1-0 lead, jumping their win expectancy to 59%, but they go on to lose. 12% WPA
12. 1996, ALDS Game 3: With runners at the corners in the top of the fourth, Bernie Williams is caught stealing and Tim Raines is thrown out at home, ending the inning. The Rangers hold on to a 1-0 deficit, jumping their win expectancy to 45%, but they go on to lose. 12% WPA