I'm Going To Call These Two Locks
UNLV (-5.5) over Colorado
If the Cal game is any indication, the Pac-12 deserved zero bids. Embarrassing. UNLV is a serious outfit as well. This would shock me if Colorado covered.
Murray State (-5.5) vs. Colorado State
Murray State has a strong backcourt, and Colorado State is a 22-10 team from a smaller conference. They notched wins against UNLV and New Mexico but nothing stands out as far as their out of conference efforts.
Things That Are More Of A Risk
Montana (+9) against Wisconsin
Wisconsin is a solid team, but their talent level isn't remarkably high. They'll win, but this is the largest spread outside of the 1-16 and 2-15 match ups.
Kansas State (-5.5) against Southern Miss
Kansas State is long, defends and rebounds. They are a different level of athlete, and this could get ugly. Or it could be close, with free throws covering the margin.