SB Nation Dallas - 2012 Texas Rangers Season Preview: Is A World Series In The Cards?https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/community_logos/48887/dallas-fave.png2012-04-06T12:03:44-05:00http://dallas.sbnation.com/rss/stream/26679022012-04-06T12:03:44-05:002012-04-06T12:03:44-05:00Projecting The Los Angeles Angels Of Anaheim, Too
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<p>So earlier today, I placed a preview of the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.lonestarball.com/">Rangers</a> that included <a target="_blank" href="http://dallas.sbnation.com/texas-rangers/2012/4/6/2929597/2012-texas-rangers-preview-and-projection">a rather lofty projection of the team's fortunes</a>.</p>
<p>In 2012, though, no forecast of Texas is complete without looking as well at the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.halosheaven.com/">Angels</a>, since it figures to be an actual pennant race. So using the same format and <a target="_blank" href="http://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&type=steamer&team=1&players=">Steamer</a> for the production and playing time, I did the same thing for the Angels. <a href="http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/1046335/WAR_Spreadsheet.xls">2012 Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim Projection</a>.</p>
<p>The results (surprisingly to me) were not nearly so optimistic, giving the Angels only 90 wins, right about where most other projection models have them. If both forecasts are to be trusted, that means the Rangers are seen as <i>10 wins</i> better than their closest rivals, and the division is not quite as close as it is made out to be by much of the media.</p>
<p>That said, this is not entirely fair to the Angels. Part of the strength of the Rangers' forecast is the playing time input of fans who understand the team. I don't know enough about the Angels to do the same thing for them, and Angels fans could quite possibly squeeze several more wins out of those performances by moving the roster around in a realistic way. Seriously, if there's an Angels fan reading this, do that and let me know. For example, <span>Mark Trumbo</span> figures to be <i>awful</i> at third base, but will they keep playing him there if he is? Will they continue to play <span>Vernon Wells</span> instead of <span>Mike Trout</span> (though Trout still gets plenty of PAs in this)?</p>
<p>Just as I would take the under on the Rangers' forecast, I would take the over on the Angels. And we certainly know the Angels can outperform their perceived talent level. There are, once again, other systems that also see a large spread between the teams. I do still think the AL West will be a tight race, but I am more confident in the Rangers being the most likely team to take it, and have a small reason to believe they might be as close as originally thought.</p>
https://dallas.sbnation.com/texas-rangers/2012/4/6/2930518/projecting-the-los-angeles-angels-of-anaheim-tooRobbie Griffin2012-04-06T10:00:53-05:002012-04-06T10:00:53-05:002012 Texas Rangers Preview And Projection
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<img alt="SURPRISE, AZ - FEBRUARY 23: Yu Darvish #11 of the Texas Rangers streches during spring workouts at Surprise Stadium on February 23, 2012 in Surprise, Arizona. (Photo by Norm Hall/Getty Images)" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/ky64HiRORqegy2HuuPfZXuUx6KA=/2x0:998x664/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/photo_images/5641407/139602902.jpg" />
<figcaption>SURPRISE, AZ - FEBRUARY 23: Yu Darvish #11 of the Texas Rangers streches during spring workouts at Surprise Stadium on February 23, 2012 in Surprise, Arizona. (Photo by Norm Hall/Getty Images) | Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>A run down of the Rangers' position outlooks, and an eye opening forecast for the season.</p> <p><a href="http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/1045593/2012_Rangers_Projection.xls">2012 Texas Rangers Projection</a> <br id="1333693573364"></p>
<p>This is normally the place where one would fit an inspiring narrative about getting back up on that horse. About the third time being the charm. About finishing the job, and defending pennants. All that fun stuff.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, this is going to be a little bit too long for a heck of a lot of narrative, and <a target="_blank" href="http://www.lonestarball.com/2012/4/5/2925820/series-preview-chicago-white-sox-texas-rangers-2012">Christopher already did a pretty good job of that</a>, anyway. Besides, do any Rangers fans want to read another word about the 2011 World Series?</p>
<p>Instead of tasty seasoning, this is simply the meaty preview. What follows is a brief look at each position for the 2012 <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.lonestarball.com/">Texas Rangers</a>, and my attempt at creating a transparent win forecast for the team that anyone can play with and adjust as they feel fit.</p>
<p>Okay. Ready?</p>
<h4>SYNOPSIS</h4>
<p>The Rangers have improved every season for a while now, to the point that they were likely the best team in baseball in 2011. The team won a franchise-record 96 games, but bad luck and a bad bullpen held them back. Their true talent at the end of the season was likely significantly better than 96 wins, and that is saying something.</p>
<p>The 2012 squad is largely the same unit, complete with the additions to the bullpen, though the rotation is significantly new-look, with two new young starters.</p>
<p>Their biggest rivals, the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.halosheaven.com/">Angels</a>, lost the division by 10 games, and were probably not even that close from a true talent standpoint. The Angels added <span>Albert Pujols</span>, one of the greatest players in the history of the game, and that is something of a big deal. He's also old, though. They also took the Rangers' best pitcher <span>C.J. Wilson</span> away, and added <span>Chris Iannetta</span> to make their laughable catching situation actually kind of good.</p>
<p>The media narrative is that the Angels surpassed the Rangers with all these moves, but that is simply media narrative. Not one of these outlets has actually shown any one of you why the Angels were better with any reliable numbers, they just want to pick something fun and different. Could the Angels win the AL West? Absolutely. They might even be the favorites, but 10 games -- if it was even that small -- to make up with a couple of new players.</p>
<p>Rangers fans shouldn't expect a cake walk again, but there is no reason for panic, either.</p>
<p>And, as you will see, every reason to pick them.</p>
<h4>CATCHER</h4>
<p>Catcher is a questionable spot in Texas, but not so much because of a lack of potential. Rather, it is a lack of clear intention. When Texas acquired <span>Mike Napoli</span>, he was not considered a strong enough defensive player to get regular time behind the plate, but that changed as the season went along. It didn't help that his companion <span>Yorvit Torrealba</span> was inept at the plate. In 2012, one of the questions is whether or not Napoli can continue to be trusted behind the plate.</p>
<p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.lonestarball.com/2012/2/14/2797607/crowd-sourcing-catcher">A poll of Rangers fans</a> at Lone Star Ball -- and rest assured fans are the best people at predicting this stuff -- largely sees Napoli getting at least half of the time at catcher, some even seeing a significant majority of the time. If that is the case, and Napoli's defensive chops continue to be better than advertised, he is an MVP candidate with health. He probably will not hit as well as he did a year ago, because that was just insane offense, but a catcher putting up some of the best offense in baseball is incredibly valuable.</p>
<h4>FIRST BASE</h4>
<p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.lonestarball.com/2012/2/15/2799703/crowd-sourcing-first-base">In another poll</a>, the people of LSB figured <span>Mitch Moreland</span> will be the primary first baseman this season. A small group do expect a platoon, but the majority think he will even face the left handers. Without a significant improvement on his last season, however, that will result in a black hole at first base for the Rangers. If he continues to struggle against right handers, we may see more of Torrealba behind the plate and Napoli at first or DH.</p>
<h4>SECOND BASE</h4>
<p>There is no real question mark here, outside of how healthy <span>Ian Kinsler</span> can be. There was indication in 2011 that he slowed up some of his play specifically to stay on the field. If that was actual work towards being healthy, rather than a fluke, Anaheim will have a problem.</p>
<h4>SHORTSTOP</h4>
<p>Very few middle infielders have shown the talent and plate discipline <span>Elvis Andrus</span> has at such a young age. We should all probably be expecting a significant step forward at some point in the next few years, the question is whether or not we have to wait for it.</p>
<h4>THIRD BASE</h4>
<p>When you scroll down and get to the forecast, here is a good position to be taking a bet of OVER. Forecast systems are not too high on <span>Adrian Beltre</span> staying healthy, but they are most likely influenced by missing significant time in two of his last three seasons. The thing is, his 2009 injury was a complete fluke (look it up if you're not squeamish), not a sign of degeneration. I'd wager he's more of an injury risk than he used to be, but still relatively likely for a player his age to stay on the field. None of the systems used in the projection below even have him hitting 570 plate appearances. That seems low for someone who has shattered that total most of his career.</p>
<h4>OUTFIELD</h4>
<p>So many questions.</p>
<p><a target="_blank" href="http://www.lonestarball.com/2012/3/25/2901139/crowd-sourcing-centerfield">Lone Star Ball felt</a> this season would mostly feature a <span>Craig Gentry</span>/<span>Julio Borbon</span> platoon. There is reason to believe that platoon would work just fine, but the Rangers appear to have lost all faith in Borbon. Gentry makes the opening day roster, but it seems Texas might roll with <span>Josh Hamilton</span> in center as much as possible. For a large injury candidate, though, centerfield only increases the number of balls he has to make plays on, every play representing another chance to get hurt.</p>
<p>Further, the combination of Hamilton and <span>David Murphy</span> keeps the excellent defense of Gentry and Borbon out of the field. The offense may make up for it, but given the injury risks, it seems questionable.</p>
<p>Whether it's the right call or not, though, either LSB will be very wrong about the state of center field, or the Rangers will be changing their minds soon.</p>
<h4>ROTATION</h4>
<p>There are few things more exciting in baseball in 2011 than the Rangers' rotation. After Colby Lewis, every pitcher is just now entering his prime. <span>Neftali Feliz</span> is finally going to start, <span>Derek Holland</span> and <span>Matt Harrison</span> took mighty steps forward a year ago, and <span>Yu Darvish</span> is probably better than any of them.</p>
<p>Youth means question marks, though. A young pitcher is more likely to take a step back than a position player, and until the games are played, we will not know how much of last season was Harrison and Holland actually reaching their potential. Nor will we know if Darvish can handle the US, or if Feliz can handle the rotation.</p>
<h4>BULLPEN</h4>
<p>The biggest reason the Rangers didn't have homefield advantage in the playoffs last season looks like one of their greatest strengths in 2011.</p>
<p><span>Alexi Ogando</span> was good enough to be an All-Star as a starter, and now gives tremendous bullpen depth. <span>Mike Adams</span> is seen by just about every forecast as probably the best reliever in 2012, if not very close.</p>
<p>There are question marks, however. <span>Joe Nathan</span> has been handed the closer's role, despite having missed significant time with injury. If people are concerned about him getting high-leverage innings, they're justified. <span>Koji Uehara</span> has been one of the best relievers in baseball for a while, and he's projected to continue that in 2012, but his weakness has always been deep fly balls, and he now plays in the wrong park for that. He has almost certainly not lost his talent, but he may be the very wrong kind of pitcher to be a Texas Ranger.</p>
<h3>THE PROJECTION</h3>
<p>Okay, here we go. Last week, we looked at several of baseball's best forecast systems, and that was all in preparation for this.</p>
<p>There is one thing forecast systems fail on against the human element, and that is projecting playing time. Fans have a better idea of where players will play, and how often. With that in mind, I got help from Rangers fans to get an idea of how the roster will be used, with the hopes that combining that knowledge with the rate stats of the leading forecasts would churn out the best forecast of the 2012 Texas Rangers possible.</p>
<p>For hitting, I used an equal mix of <a target="_blank" href="http://dallas.sbnation.com/texas-rangers/2012/3/27/2905903/2012-texas-rangers-projections-cairo">CAIRO</a>, <a target="_blank" href="http://dallas.sbnation.com/texas-rangers/2012/3/28/2907811/2012-texas-rangers-projections-zips">ZiPS</a>, and <a target="_blank" href="http://dallas.sbnation.com/texas-rangers/2012/3/30/2914243/2012-texas-rangers-projections-steamer">Steamer.</a> For pitching, I simply used Steamer, which has done incredibly well in recent years in terms of both innings and rates. The exception is Yu Darvish, where I used all three systems because I have no idea who handles Japanese imports the best. Pitchers and hitters are both park-adjusted.</p>
<p>When needed, I used the LSB polls to designate playing time, using <a target="_blank" href="http://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&type=rotochamp">RotoChamp</a> -- perhaps the best forecast system at projection playing time -- as a cap. For defense, I used a player's past four seasons at their primary position, with heavy regression to average. This is a very conservative outlook on defensive contributions.</p>
<p>With all that done, I plugged it in to a projection spreadsheet designed by Sky Kalkman, which took the numbers, put them together, and gave the 2012 Texas Rangers a modest win total.</p>
<h3>2012 Texas Rangers Win Talent: 100</h3>
<p>Okay, not modest. In fact, extremely optimistic, and frankly a bit baffling.</p>
<p>The spreadsheet is attached so you can play with it however you like, but I am not seeing any major mistakes. Perhaps some regression that should be applied to teams at the high end of win production is not being applied here.</p>
<p>To be fair, there are a lot of optimistic forecasts out there. <a target="_blank" href="http://www.rlyw.net/index.php/RLYW/comments/the_2012_mlb_projection_blowout_-_pecota_edition">Like this one</a>. <a target="_blank" href="http://claydavenport.com/PROJHOME.shtml">And this one</a>. Simply and quickly replacing every rate stat with ZiPS and Steamer still resulted with just a touch fewer wins than my combination came up with. Last year, when this same process looked a touch more optimistic than some other forecasts, it ended up being still <i>too</i> conservative.</p>
<p>So, perhaps it's the spreadsheet, or perhaps the Rangers are just that good. Some of the best forecast systems in the business, combined with Rangers' fans attempts at predicting playing time, has the team hitting triple digits in wins.</p>
<p>Would I take the under? Absolutely. As fantastic as I think the Rangers are, predicting 100 wins is extreme. At the same time, that's just my unreliable human intuition.</p>
<p>I don't stand by this and say there are no kinks, I say this is how things turned out, and you can play with it however you like.</p>
<p>Or you can just trust that the Rangers are going to hit the century mark and 2012 will be really awesome.</p>
<h3><a href="http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/1045593/2012_Rangers_Projection.xls">DOWNLOADABLE SPREADSHEET YOU CAN PLAY WITH YOURSELF!!!</a></h3>
<h4>HITTER STATS*</h4>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center"><b>PLAYER</b></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center"><b>PA</b></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center"><b>HR</b></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center"><b>RBI</b></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center"><b>AVG</b></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center"><b>OBP</b></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center"><b>SLG</b></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center"><b>WOBA</b></p>
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<td style="width: 39.15pt; -moz-border-top-colors: none; -moz-border-right-colors: none; -moz-border-bottom-colors: none; -moz-border-left-colors: none; -moz-border-image: none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="52">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center"><b>WAR</b></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center"><b>E. Andrus</b></p>
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<td style="width: 46.9pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="63">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">647</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 29.45pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="39">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">5</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 27.65pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="37">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">34</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 31.6pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="42">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">49</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 36.5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="49">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">.273</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 35.8pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="48">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">.342</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 35.8pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="48">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">.356</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 46.55pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="62">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">.318</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 39.15pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="52">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">3.3</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 76.25pt; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; -moz-border-top-colors: none; -moz-border-right-colors: none; -moz-border-bottom-colors: none; -moz-border-left-colors: none; -moz-border-image: none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="102">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center"><b>A. Beltre</b></p>
</td>
<td style="width: 46.9pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="63">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">541</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 29.45pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="39">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">23</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 27.65pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="37">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">3</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 31.6pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="42">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">83</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 36.5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="49">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">.288</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 35.8pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="48">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">.331</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 35.8pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="48">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">.498</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 46.55pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="62">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">.343</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 39.15pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="52">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">4.4</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 76.25pt; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; -moz-border-top-colors: none; -moz-border-right-colors: none; -moz-border-bottom-colors: none; -moz-border-left-colors: none; -moz-border-image: none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="102">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center"><b>N. Cruz</b></p>
</td>
<td style="width: 46.9pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="63">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">518</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 29.45pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="39">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">27</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 27.65pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="37">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">13</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 31.6pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="42">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">80</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 36.5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="49">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">.273</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 35.8pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="48">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">.332</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 35.8pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="48">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">.512</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 46.55pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="62">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">.360</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 39.15pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="52">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">3.3</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 76.25pt; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; -moz-border-top-colors: none; -moz-border-right-colors: none; -moz-border-bottom-colors: none; -moz-border-left-colors: none; -moz-border-image: none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="102">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center"><b>J. Borbon</b></p>
</td>
<td style="width: 46.9pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="63">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">170</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 29.45pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="39">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">2</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 27.65pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="37">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">9</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 31.6pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="42">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">14</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 36.5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="49">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">.277</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 35.8pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="48">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">.337</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 35.8pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="48">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">.346</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 46.55pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="62">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">.317</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 39.15pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="52">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">0.7</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 76.25pt; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; -moz-border-top-colors: none; -moz-border-right-colors: none; -moz-border-bottom-colors: none; -moz-border-left-colors: none; -moz-border-image: none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="102">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center"><b>C. Gentry</b></p>
</td>
<td style="width: 46.9pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="63">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">331</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 29.45pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="39">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">4</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 27.65pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="37">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">18</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 31.6pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="42">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">27</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 36.5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="49">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">.252</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 35.8pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="48">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">.315</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 35.8pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="48">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">.347</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 46.55pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="62">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">.308</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 39.15pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="52">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">1.2</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 76.25pt; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; -moz-border-top-colors: none; -moz-border-right-colors: none; -moz-border-bottom-colors: none; -moz-border-left-colors: none; -moz-border-image: none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="102">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center"><b>J. Hamilton</b></p>
</td>
<td style="width: 46.9pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="63">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">530</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 29.45pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="39">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">23</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 27.65pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="37">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">7</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 31.6pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="42">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">2</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 36.5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="49">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">.297</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 35.8pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="48">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">.351</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 35.8pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="48">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">.518</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 46.55pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="62">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">.381</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 39.15pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="52">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">4.1</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 76.25pt; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; -moz-border-top-colors: none; -moz-border-right-colors: none; -moz-border-bottom-colors: none; -moz-border-left-colors: none; -moz-border-image: none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="102">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center"><b>I. Kinsler</b></p>
</td>
<td style="width: 46.9pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="63">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">634</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 29.45pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="39">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">24</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 27.65pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="37">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">24</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 31.6pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="42">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">77</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 36.5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="49">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">.268</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 35.8pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="48">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">.355</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 35.8pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="48">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">.464</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 46.55pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="62">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">.375</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 39.15pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="52">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">6.2</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 76.25pt; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; -moz-border-top-colors: none; -moz-border-right-colors: none; -moz-border-bottom-colors: none; -moz-border-left-colors: none; -moz-border-image: none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="102">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center"><b>M. Moreland</b></p>
</td>
<td style="width: 46.9pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="63">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">444</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 29.45pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="39">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">14</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 27.65pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="37">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">3</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 31.6pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="42">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">51</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 36.5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="49">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">.257</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 35.8pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="48">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">.325</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 35.8pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="48">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">.436</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 46.55pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="62">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">.336</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 39.15pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="52">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">1.4</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 76.25pt; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; -moz-border-top-colors: none; -moz-border-right-colors: none; -moz-border-bottom-colors: none; -moz-border-left-colors: none; -moz-border-image: none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="102">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center"><b>D. Murphy</b></p>
</td>
<td style="width: 46.9pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="63">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">423</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 29.45pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="39">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">12</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 27.65pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="37">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">9</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 31.6pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="42">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">50</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 36.5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="49">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">.272</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 35.8pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="48">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">.333</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 35.8pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="48">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">.428</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 46.55pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="62">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">.340</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 39.15pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="52">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">1.7</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 76.25pt; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; -moz-border-top-colors: none; -moz-border-right-colors: none; -moz-border-bottom-colors: none; -moz-border-left-colors: none; -moz-border-image: none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="102">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center"><b>M. Napoli</b></p>
</td>
<td style="width: 46.9pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="63">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">554</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 29.45pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="39">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">34</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 27.65pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="37">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">6</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 31.6pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="42">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">88</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 36.5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="49">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">.274</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 35.8pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="48">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">.362</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 35.8pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="48">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">.544</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 46.55pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="62">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">.382</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 39.15pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="52">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">5.0</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 76.25pt; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; -moz-border-top-colors: none; -moz-border-right-colors: none; -moz-border-bottom-colors: none; -moz-border-left-colors: none; -moz-border-image: none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="102">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center"><b>Y. Torrealba</b></p>
</td>
<td style="width: 46.9pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="63">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">321</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 29.45pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="39">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">5</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 27.65pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="37">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">2</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 31.6pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="42">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">32</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 36.5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="49">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">.263</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 35.8pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="48">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">.313</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 35.8pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="48">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">.382</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 46.55pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="62">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">.300</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 39.15pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="52">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">1.0</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 76.25pt; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; -moz-border-top-colors: none; -moz-border-right-colors: none; -moz-border-bottom-colors: none; -moz-border-left-colors: none; -moz-border-image: none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="102">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center"><b>M. Young</b></p>
</td>
<td style="width: 46.9pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="63">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">640</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 29.45pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="39">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">16</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 27.65pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="37">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">5</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 31.6pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="42">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">2</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 36.5pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="49">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">.272</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 35.8pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="48">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">.320</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 35.8pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="48">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">.421</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 46.55pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="62">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">.318</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 39.15pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="52">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">0.8</p>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<p> </p>
<p><i>*wOBA park adjusted.</i></p>
https://dallas.sbnation.com/texas-rangers/2012/4/6/2929597/2012-texas-rangers-preview-and-projectionRobbie Griffin2012-04-05T10:00:51-05:002012-04-05T10:00:51-05:00Rangers Division Favorites In 2012 Projection Blowout
<figure>
<img alt="" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/GvT769MZcBhoCqQhquFTMVRiuKg=/0x26:400x293/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/47828111/large_dallas.sbnation.com.minimal.0.png" />
</figure>
<p>I spent last week highlighting several popular forecast systems, and what they said about the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.lonestarball.com/">Texas Rangers</a>.</p>
<p>Each year, however, Replacement Level Yankees Weblog does me one better, by combining several systems (three we looked at, and pay wall-protected PECOTA and Oliver) in to <a target="_blank" href="http://www.rlyw.net/index.php/RLYW/direct/the_2012_mlb_projection_blowout_-_american_league_edition">one massive, overall look in their Projection Blowout</a>. I wish they'd use Steamer, considering how competitive it is with the others, and how available it is, but I'm not the man doing the hard work.</p>
<p>In any case, the blowout is not quite as optimistic about the Rangers as their own CAIRO system, but it's close. Compiling the four systems gives the Rangers a 91 win season, behind only the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.pinstripealley.com/">New York Yankees</a> (94) in baseball, winning the division by one game. That should come as little surprise, given the general theme in forecasts this year has been 1) Texas is very good, probably behind only New York, 2) the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.halosheaven.com/">Angels</a> are almost, but not quite, as good.</p>
<p>In their trials, Texas wins the division just over 52% of the time, and makes the playoffs a robust 75% of the time; the latter number by far the most comfortable of any Major League team after the Yanks.</p>
<p>All that said, the 91 wins they give the Rangers might be the highest average of any team in the AL West, but at the same time they also don't see it as enough to win the division. The combined prognostication of the systems sees the West taking around 95 wins to win, and typically being won by eight games. The wild card spots come out at 92 and 89 wins to seal.</p>
<p>In one last feature, through the blowout post, you can see the individual results for each system used. Always-conservative Marcel is the most pessimistic on the Rangers' win total, at only 87. Three-out-of-five -- Marcel, along with Oliver and ZiPS -- actually have the Angels winning the division, but PECOTA skews things mightily. The Baseball Prospectus system which was once the best in the business -- and can certainly argue that claim again -- is extremely high on Texas, giving them a stunning 98 wins, the best in baseball (<a target="_blank" href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/">the real thing isn't quite that optimistic</a>).</p>
<p>So, there you go. A lot of this will be wrong, because baseball, but it is a whole lot better than just guessing. With that in mind, it's great to see the Rangers looking good.</p>
https://dallas.sbnation.com/texas-rangers/2012/4/5/2927020/rangers-division-favorites-in-2012-projection-blowoutRobbie Griffin2012-04-05T08:01:05-05:002012-04-05T08:01:05-05:002012 MLB Playoff, Award And World Series Predictions
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<img alt="ARLINGTON, TX - SEPTEMBER 25: The Seattle Mariners and the Texas Rangers at Rangers Ballpark in Arlington on September 25, 2011 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/yrzFykdNAud8BHHfEs-O49H6BsI=/0x0:1000x667/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/photo_images/4196067/126563070.jpg" />
<figcaption>ARLINGTON, TX - SEPTEMBER 25: The Seattle Mariners and the Texas Rangers at Rangers Ballpark in Arlington on September 25, 2011 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images) | Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>The 2012 MLB season is finally here, and as always, the staff of SB Nation Dallas forecasts how the season will play out.</p> <p>Opening Day is officially here! Well, sort of. Technically, the first game of the season was last week, but Thursday is the first day with multiple games. As such, the staff here at SB Nation Dallas has made our fearless predictions for the 2012 baseball season -- picking each playoff team, award winner and crowning the 2012 World Series champion.</p>
<h5><b>AL East</b></h5>
<p><a target="_blank" href="http://dallas.sbnation.com/authors/robbie-griffin"><b>Robbie Griffin</b></a><b>: </b><a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.pinstripealley.com/">New York Yankees</a></p>
<p>The Yankees have the best roster in baseball, and it will take some surprising overperformance or some rapid aging in New York for them not to have the best record. The Rays and Red Sox are not too far behind, though, and the Blue Jays have tremendous surprise potential; for a great team, New York has a relatively good chance of missing out entirely.</p>
<p><a target="_blank" href="http://dallas.sbnation.com/authors/willie-funk"><b>Willie Funk</b></a><b>: </b>New York Yankees</p>
<p>The boys in pinstripes have an excess of pitching, even without peg-leg Joba. Offensively, I look for A-Rod to have a bounceback year now that he's finally gotten that hip healthy -- he should be able to drive the ball more consistently now. The <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/">Blue Jays</a> will fight the Red Sox for second for a while, but the Sox to limp back to the playoffs as the second Wild Card and save Bobby V's job.</p>
<p><a target="_blank" href="http://dallas.sbnation.com/authors/john-stathas"><b>John Stathas</b></a><b>:</b> New York Yankees</p>
<p>The Yankees take care of business in an AL East that is weaker than in past seasons. Robinson Cano will be the team MVP (and be in the running for AL MVP). Cano is arguably the best hitter in baseball right now. The usual suspects (<span>Alex Rodriguez</span> and <span>Mark Teixeira</span>) will stay consistent and put up good numbers. <span>CC Sabathia</span> and Michael Pineda dominate the top of therotation and <span>Ivan Nova</span> puts together a solid season as well. Joba Chamberlain's ankle injury will hurt the staff's depth, but with <span>Mariano Rivera</span> on the back end, the Yankees get to enjoy playing eight-inning games for another season. The Yanks lose to the Angels in the ALDS.</p>
<p><b>JP Starkey: </b><a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.draysbay.com/">Tampa Bay Rays</a></p>
<p>Are the Rays perfect? Nope, they're not. But a full year of <span>Desmond Jennings</span> will help the offense out, as should the return of Carlos Pena. If <span>Evan Longoria</span> stays healthy, he will be the American League MVP. <span>David Price</span> should continue to get better, and <span>Matt Moore</span> should be in the forefront of the Rookie of the Year race. Of course, the Yankees and Red Sox have a lot of talent, but with <span>Michael Pineda's</span> balky shoulder and turmoil in Boston's bullpen (and brass), I see the Rays winning the AL East.</p>
<h5>AL Central</h5>
<p><b>Griffin: </b><a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.blessyouboys.com/">Detroit Tigers</a></p>
<p>The Royals have a nice potential ceiling, and it was not that long ago the Twins were actually good with a similar roster, but the Tigers are so clearly ahead of their division they are the most (relatively) comfortable team in baseball. That said, playing Miguel Cabrera at third threatens to totally un-do the addition of Prince Fielder. This team is being treated as possibly the class of the AL, but I think that tier is a long shot for them.</p>
<p><b>Funk</b>: Detroit Tigers</p>
<p>Despite my urge to put Kansas City or Cleveland, I just can't do it. Verlander should repeat as Cy Young with even more wins behind an even stronger offense. Look for <span>Miguel Cabrera</span> to make mistakes at third, but figure things out by the latter part of the year. KC will have a nice run at some point in the year and flash their potential, but they don't have consistent pitching to stretch that into a full effort. Cleveland just has too many injuries and an innings eater banned for Julia Roberts in The Net-ing someone.</p>
<p><i>** Editor's note: This is a reference to a 1995 movie about identity theft I've never heard of before. Apparently Willie didn't find it too memorable either -- Sandra Bullock, not Julia Roberts, is the main star. Here's a taste of how long ago this was, <a href="http://rogerebert.suntimes.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/19950728/REVIEWS/507280302">from Roger Ebert's review</a>: "The computer stuff will interest anyone into such things". </i></p>
<p><b>Stathas</b>: <span style="font-weight: normal;">Detroit Tigers</span></p>
<p>The Tigers flat out dominate this year, possibly winning 100 games. Miguel Cabrera wins the MVP and is a serious Triple Crown threat. <span>Prince Fielder</span> might not have quite as good of stats due to a more pitcher friendly park, but he still puts up great numbers. These two bats in the middle of the lineup are also going to help younger players like <span>Delmon Young</span> and Austin Jackson put together solid seasons. <span>Justin Verlander</span> challenges for another Cy Young and starters like <span>Doug Fister</span> and <span>Max Scherzer</span> put up solid numbers with much better run support this season. The Tigers are SCARY young (Verlander and Cabrera are the oldest stars at 29) so look for them to dominate this division for the foreseeable future. The Tigers run away with this weak division and ultimately win the World Series.</p>
<p><b>Starkey</b>: <span style="font-weight: normal;">Detroit Tigers</span></p>
<p>I was really tempted to pick the White Sox, largely because I believe Brent Morel and Gordon Beckham will take steps forward, and really, there's no way Adam Dunn can be <i>that</i> bad, but Prince Fielder's presence in Detroit's lineup will make them too much. Kansas City might flirt with contention, but in the end, it'll be the very top-heavy Tigers. If any of Detroit's three studs, Justin Verlander, Miguel Cabrera or Fielder, hit the disabled list for an extended period of time, this could become a race.</p>
<h5>AL West</h5>
<p><b>Griffin: </b><a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.lonestarball.com/">Texas Rangers</a></p>
<p>The Yankees have the best roster on paper, but the Rangers are not far behind, and have the highest ceiling. 96 wins a season ago despite bad luck and a bad bullpen. The bullpen is improved, and just think of what would happen with even more growth out of the rotation and some good luck with injuries. Texas will probably merely be very good, but there is real potential for them to be incredible. The Angels don't have that.</p>
<p><b>Funk: </b>Texas Rangers</p>
<p>Provided the Rangers can get their rotation in order and <span>Colby Lewis</span> still has enough juice to junkball his way through another decent season, the firepower on offense should carry them to a 90+ win season. The Angels have a lot of nice pieces, but I don't like betting the farm on an overweight Central American in his thirties (we think) who can't run or field particularly well. I also don't like <span>C.J. Wilson</span> because he's a douche, so there's that too. Oakland is god-awful and I still can't believe they were a darkhorse pick by some baseball people before last year. All I'll say about Seattle is that <span>Felix Hernandez</span> is a monster.</p>
<p><b>Stathas</b>: <span style="font-weight: normal;"><a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.halosheaven.com/">Los Angeles Angels</a></span></p>
<p>Free agent splashes (more like tidal waves) <span>Albert Pujols</span> and CJ Wilson push the Angels past the Rangers this year in the West. The Angels’ biggest problem: how to get their three best bats in one lineup. With the emergence of <span>Mark Trumbo</span> and a healthy <span>Kendrys Morales</span>, the Angels are now stuck with three true first basemen. Their solution this spring has been to move Trumbo to third base, which seems to be working out fine. Expect monster numbers from this trio in the middle of the lineup. Add arguably the best rotation in baseball to the mix and you have a serious contender. <span>Jered Weaver</span> wins the Cy Young this year. <span>Dan Haren</span>, CJ Wilson, and <span>Ervin Santana</span> all have great seasons as well. The Angels fall short in the ALCS at the hands of the Tigers, who win in seven because they’ll have home field advantage.</p>
<p><b>Starkey</b>: <span style="font-weight: normal;">Los Angeles Angels</span></p>
<p>The AL West has two very good teams. I'll take Los Angeles' pitching staff over the course of the season, and C.J. Wilson should improve pitching in Angels Stadium, along with having <span>Peter Bourjos</span> roaming centerfield, and eventually <span>Mike Trout</span> in left or right. Adding Albert Pujols to the lineup should make everybody better, and if Kendry Morales is healthy, they should be able to score enough. The bullpen is a bit shaky, but that can be addressed over the course of the season.</p>
<h5>AL Wild Cards</h5>
<p><b>Griffin: </b><a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.overthemonster.com/">Boston Red Sox</a>, Los Angeles Angels</p>
<p>The Angels overpaid dearly for Albert Pujols, but in the short term it should be nice for them. The Red Sox collapsing down the stretch weirdly has people acting like they were never close, and lost the whole roster. They're still super talented. The Rays are right there with both teams, and someone from somewhere is going to make a run for this, too.</p>
<p><b>Stathas</b>: Boston Red Sox, Texas Rangers</p>
<p>I see Boston bouncing back from their awful collapse last season. <span>Adrian Gonzalez</span> and <span>Jacoby Ellsbury</span> will put up MVP-caliber numbers and <span>Carl Crawford</span> will get back on track. Pedroia will have his usual solid season as well. But the Sox fall short of the division due to pitching. Lester is currently their only great starter and huge questions remain for <span>Josh Beckett</span> and Daisuke Matsuzaka. <span>Clay Buchholz</span> may finally have a breakout season, but it won’t be enough. With Andrew Bailey out until at least mid-summer, the Sox have serious bullpen issues. A good hitting team here, but due to poor pitching depth they won’t rack up enough wins to win the division. They lose to Texas in the wildcard showdown</p>
<p>The Rangers fall short of their past two season successes. But the Rangers may actually be a better team than they have been the past two years. A healthy and motivated <span>Josh Hamilton</span> and Nelson Cruz will give the Rangers better hope of winning the division, but these two must play a full season. The loss of CJ Wilson won’t hurt if <span>Yu Darvish</span> turns out to be the ace the Rangers are hoping he can be. He will be, and he’ll win AL Rookie of the Year. Overall, the Rangers will be a solid team, one of the league’s best, but they fall short in the end after battling the Angels all season. Texas beats Boston in the wildcard, but loses to Detroit in the ALDS.</p>
<p><b>Starkey</b>: Boston Red Sox, Texas Rangers</p>
<p>The Red Sox edge out the Yankees for one of the two wild cards. They're just a more well-rounded team -- the starting staff with <span>Jon Lester</span>, Josh Beckett and Clay Buchholz is simply better. Losing Andrew Bailey for a few months will hurt, but <span>Alfredo Aceves</span> and <span>Mark Melancon</span> <i>should</i> be able to shut the door until Bailey is back. Jacoby Ellsbury will likely regress, but Carl Crawford should bounce back in a big way. Boston's biggest offseason loss was Heidi Watney, who left NESN. How that will affect the team is unknown.</p>
<p>Texas should claim the second wild card spot. I'm fully expecting Yu Darvish to not only win Rookie of the Year honors in the American League, but contend for the American League Cy Young. The Rangers are not a perfect team, though. A <i>lot</i> could go wrong with the rotation as things stand. If Colby Lewis doesn't do a better job keeping the ball in the park, he's going to give up a lot of runs. <span>Derek Holland</span> needs to prove to me that he can be consistent, and <span>Neftali Feliz</span> will likely encounter some speed bumps this year, and has an innings limit. A lot of Texas' success this year could ride on the arms of <span>Alexi Ogando</span> and Scott Feldman. Texas' lineup should be one of the league's best, and they just need to stay healthy on offense.</p>
<h5>American League Rookie of the Year</h5>
<p><b>Griffin: </b>Yu Darvish<br><b>Stathas</b>: Yu Darvish<br><b>Starkey</b>: Yu Darvish</p>
<h5>American League Cy Young</h5>
<p><b>Griffin: </b>Yu Darvish<br><b>Stathas: </b>Jered Weaver<br><b>Starkey: </b>Yu Darvish</p>
<h5>American League MVP</h5>
<p><b>Griffin: </b>Miguel Cabrera<br><b>Funk: </b>Miguel Cabrera<br><b>Stathas: </b>Miguel Cabrera<br><b>Starkey: </b>Evan Longoria</p>
<h5>NL East</h5>
<p><b>Griffin: </b><a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.thegoodphight.com/">Philadelphia Phillies</a></p>
<p>There is way to much kvetching over the loss of Ryan Howard, when Ryan Howard isn't even good. He's become the most overrated player in baseball by a decent margin, but that's good right now for Phillies fans (it's bad when his contract hurts the team in the off-season). Missing Utley, meanwhile, actually hurts, but with that rotation, a simply solid offense and defense is enough to top the East.</p>
<p><b>Funk</b>: Philadelphia Phillies</p>
<p>I wanted to do something daring here, but there's just too much pitching. That's what wins and the Phils have it. After Philly, the race for the wild card is happening within this division. The Vice City Marlins made a lot of splashy signings, but <span>Hanley Ramirez</span> hit like .220 last year and I didn't like the <span>Heath Bell</span> signing one bit - I don't understand signing overweight closers in their mid-thirties with declining fastballs. Someone explain this to me please. So I'm gonna go with the Braves to take the first Wild Card. It's partially a sentimental pick for Chipper, but the rest of the very young team that should have made the playoffs was kept in tact. A year of progress later, I think they'll be better and march into the postseason behind a resurgent <span>Jason Heyward</span>. He's too good to suck again this year. As for the second, I think Washington is still a year away for me to make that ridiculous pick, so I'll say the Marlins' spending spree lets them sneak by the Giants despite their contentious division schedule.</p>
<p><b>Stathas</b>: <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.fishstripes.com/">Miami Marlins</a></p>
<p>Even behind their abysmal color scheme, the Marlins emerge on top of the East after a season- long battle royale with Atlanta and Philadelphia. Hanley Ramirez bounces back after an awful 2011 and <span>Jose Reyes</span> feeds off that for a big year (if he stays healthy). Youngsters Giancarlo (formerly Mike) Stanton and <span>Logan Morrison</span> have big seasons too. Josh Johnson looks to have recovered from his 2011 shoulder injury. If he stays healthy, he puts together a Cy Young worthy season. I also think <span>Carlos Zambrano</span> finds himself again with the help of Ozzie Guillen (or they kill each other in a fiery lovers quarrel). Miami loses to Arizona in the NLDS.</p>
<p><b>Starkey</b>: Philadelphia Phillies</p>
<p>I considered the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.federalbaseball.com/">Washington Nationals</a> here, but they're just not quite better than the Phillies yet. Philadelphia's offense will likely struggle without <span>Chase Utley</span> and <span>Ryan Howard</span> in the lineup, so they'll need <span>Shane Victorino</span>, <span>Hunter Pence</span> and <span>Jimmy Rollins</span> to get off to hot starts. Philadelphia's staff is just too good, and once again boasts three Cy Young candidates in <span>Roy Halladay</span>, <span>Cliff Lee</span> and Cole Hamels. Jon Papelbon should have an excellent year switching leagues, and it all adds up to yet another division title in Philly.</p>
<h5>NL Central</h5>
<p><b>Griffin: </b><a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.redreporter.com/">Cincinnati Reds</a></p>
<p>I actually think this is the best division in the NL this season. The Reds have their work cut out for them, but I think they're simply the most talented team in the division. They have potential big rookie performers in Devin Mesoraco and Zack Cozart giving them a boost from 2011. Neither is on the sexy list of young studs, but both look prepared to contribute immediately, and that's all that matters in the short term. That said, this is also the most unpredictable race in baseball, I feel.</p>
<p><b>Funk</b>:<strike> </strike><strike><a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.crawfishboxes.com/">Houston Astros</a></strike> Cincinnati Reds</p>
<p>Houston Astros -- NOT! HA! That was fun. I like Cincinnati. They've made serious moves in getting Matt Latos, who's my semi-unreasonable out of the blue pick for the Cy Young, and overpaying <span>Joey Votto</span> to lock down the homegrown star. With another big year from <span>Brandon Phillips</span>, this team will narrowly edge out a still talented <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/">St. Louis Cardinals</a> squad. PS: The Astros are total garbage.</p>
<p><b>Stathas</b>: <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.brewcrewball.com/">Milwaukee Brewers</a></p>
<p>The loss of Prince Fielder hurts the Crew, but Ryan Braun and the boys can still score plenty of runs in that ballpark. Braun has a big season and <span>Rickie Weeks</span> and Cory Hart contribute their usual numbers. <span>Zack Greinke</span> puts together a great season, and the rest of the staff will be serviceable enough. The Brewers benefit from a very weak division, especially because they get to play more games within their large division. Through attrition, they win the Central. But the Crew loses in the NLDS to Atlanta.</p>
<p><b>Starkey</b>: St. Louis Cardinals</p>
<p>The defending World Series champions lost two franchise icons this offseason, as Albert Pujols signed with the Angels and Tony La Russa retired into the sunset. Still, the Cardinals are a very, very good baseball team and might be even better this year than last year. A full year of <span>Rafael Furcal</span> (or, however long he doesn't spend on the disabled list), plus <span>Carlos Beltran</span> certainly helps out the offense. If <span>David Freese</span> can stay healthy all year, he too should help make up for the loss of Pujols. <span>Adam Wainwright</span> is the team's best pitcher -- and he didn't throw a pitch last year. When Chris Carpenter returns from the disabled list, a top three of Wainwright, Carpenter and <span>Jaime Garcia</span> will be tough to beat.</p>
<h5>NL West</h5>
<p><b>Griffin: </b><a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.mccoveychronicles.com/">San Francisco Giants</a></p>
<p>The NL West looks awful on paper. Really, really awful. The Giants appear to be the most likely team to reach the mid-80s in wins, and that should be enough. The return of Buster Posey could be huge. Provided he can be healthy, he has the ability to be elite right this second, and serves essentially as a massive roster addition for a year ago. I don't fully believe the Diamondbacks were a fluke, but there is a large enough chance that I'm not picking them.</p>
<p><b>Funk</b>: <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.azsnakepit.com/">Arizona Diamondbacks</a></p>
<p>I can't lie. This is about 70% because I really don't like <span>Tim Lincecum</span>. I don't know why, but luckily I don't need to. Their lineup is filled with AAA hitters and 300 pounds of Pablo Sandoval. The Diamondbacks are young, and it'll be interesting to see how they handle success. If Ian Kennedy can recreate his success from last year, then this is a smart pick. That's really what it hinges on for them in my opinion -- pitching. <span>Clayton Kershaw</span> and <span>Matt Kemp</span> are really good for the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.truebluela.com/">Dodgers</a>, but the rest of this division bores me.</p>
<p><b>Stathas</b>; Arizona Diamondbacks</p>
<p>The young Diamondbacks stars build on their great 2011 season and take it a step further this year. <span>Justin Upton</span> challenges Matt Kemp for the NL MVP. But the D’backs will have their pitching staff to thank for winning the division. <span>Ian Kennedy</span> wins the Cy Young this year. <span>Daniel Hudson</span> and <span>Trevor Cahill</span> round out the young staff with solid seasons. <span>Trevor Bauer</span> is called up around early summer and pitches his way to a Rookie of the Year award. Arizona easily wins a weak division. They beat Miami in the NLDS, but lose to Atlanta in the NLCS.</p>
<p><b>Starkey</b>: San Francisco Giants</p>
<p>The sun shines on Brian Sabean's ass once again. Tim Lincecum contends for yet another Cy Young, and <span>Brandon Belt</span> gets enough playing time to make an impact. The return of <span>Buster Posey</span> is quite significant as well, as is <span>Brandon Crawford</span> being the everyday shortstop. Just too much pitching in San Francisco, and just enough offense to return to October.</p>
<h5>NL Wild Cards</h5>
<p><b>Griffin: </b>St. Louis Cardinals, <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.talkingchop.com/">Atlanta Braves</a></p>
<p>In a land with two wild cards, we have no last day drama. Both teams get in! And then they have to play each other. I'm fully prepared for one or both of these spots to belong to the Brewers or Diamondbacks, as well. The Pujols loss is not quite as big as people make it out to be, particularly if you believe the Cardinals were better than their actual record last season (I do) and Adam Wainwright will come back healthy.</p>
<p><b>Stathas</b>: St. Louis Cardinals, Atlanta Braves</p>
<p>The Cardinals suffer from the loss of Pujols, but the return of Adam Wainwright levels out the wins/losses. <span>Matt Holliday</span> leads the bats as he bounces back from a somewhat subpar 2011. David Freese and <span>Lance Berkman</span> provide the rest of the run production. Wainwright leads a no-name staff, but makes a run at the Cy Young if he can stay healthy. The Cards fall short of the division, but snag a wildcard seed due to the weak division. They lose to Atlanta in the wildcard showdown.</p>
<p>The Braves bounce back from their horrific collapse this season in a big way. Jason Heyward recovers from his sophomore slump and assumes his role as the team’s future. <span>Freddie Freeman</span> reminds Atlanta fans that he is a part of that bright future as well by posting huge numbers. <span>Dan Uggla</span> and <span>Brian McCann</span> put together All-Star campaigns as well. Tommy Hanson stays healthy and anchors a solid pitching staff. <span>Brandon Beachy</span> has a stellar second season as well. <span>Craig Kimbrel</span> secures the back end of enough games for the Braves to secure a wildcard berth. After a tough season of trading blows with Philadelphia and Miami, the Braves beat St. Louis in the wildcard round, beat Milwauke in the NLDS, beat Arizona, in the NLCS, but lose to Detroit in the World Series.</p>
<p><b>Starkey</b>: Atlanta Braves, Cincinnati Reds</p>
<p>The Bravos will make the playoffs, somewhat atoning for last year's collapse -- but only if <span>Tommy Hanson's</span> shoulder holds up. If Hanson goes down, so will Atlanta's season. Jason Heyward will be one of the better players in the league, and Atlanta's offense with Heyward, Brian McCann, Freddie Freeman, <span>Chipper Jones</span> and Dan Uggla should be one of the league's very best.</p>
<p>Cincinnati lost <span>Ryan Madson</span> to start the year, but luckily, relievers are easily replaceable. <span>Sean Marshall</span> should prove to be a capable closer, and <span>Aroldis Chapman</span> will likely be dominant out of the bullpen -- so I'm not worried there. <span>Mat Latos</span> and <span>Johnny Cueto</span> is a nice 1-2 punch, and I believe <span>Jay Bruce</span> will take a major step forward and turn into an MVP candidate this year. The Reds will get to pad their win total this year, feasting on the lowly <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/">Cubs</a> and Astros.</p>
<h5>National League Rookie of the Year</h5>
<p><b>Griffin: </b>Zach Cozart<br><b>Stathas: </b>Trevor Bauer<br><b>Starkey: </b><span>Devin Mesoraco</span></p>
<h5>National League Cy Young</h5>
<p><b>Griffin: </b>Clayton Kershaw<br><b>Stathas: </b>Ian Kennedy<br><b>Starkey: </b>Tim Lincecum</p>
<h5>National League MVP</h5>
<p><b>Griffin: </b>Joey Votto<br><b>Funk: </b>Jason Heyward<br><b>Stathas: </b>Matt Kemp<br><b>Starkey: </b><span>Troy Tulowitzki</span></p>
<h5>World Series</h5>
<p><b>Stathas</b>: Detroit Tigers over Atlanta Braves</p>
<p><b>Funk</b>: Texas Rangers over Atlanta Braves</p>
<p>I see the Braves getting hot at the right time and making out of the Wild Card in a weak NL. The Rangers are stacked, and since I'm from Dallas, and to a lesser degree because the Yankees are old and a 162 game season should wear on them and thin them out with injuries, the Rangers will eliminate the Yankees in a 6 game ALCS. In the series, the Rangers will overpower a less talented and less mature Braves team 4-1.</p>
<p><b>Griffin: </b>Texas Rangers over Philadelphia Phillies</p>
<p>The Rangers and Yankees seem to clearly be the class of baseball to me -- which means one of them will fall hard -- and the Rangers have fewer good teams to deal with in the division. Boston, Detroit, Anaheim, Tampa, and Philadelphia all look very good, and then it's the rest of baseball. I'll go out, though, and say that at least one of Toronto, Cleveland, Kansas City, Minnesota, Washington, and Colorado will seriously contend.</p>
<p>The Rangers may be my World Series pick, but I know being the favorite doesn't mean being likely. I don't think I'm braced anymore for anything less than a pennant. This could be rough.</p>
<p><b>Starkey</b>: St. Louis Cardinals over Tampa Bay Rays</p>
<p>The Cardinals will become baseball's first repeat champions since the Yankees won three in a row between '98 and '00. If the Cardinals stay healthy, they're the best team in the National League, and they should get a boost toward the end of the year from <span>Shelby Miller</span> -- either in the rotation or out of the bullpen.</p>
<p><i>Be sure to keep checking out SB Nation Dallas for Rangers coverage all year long, as well as <a href="http://www.lonestarball.com" target="_blank">Lone Star Ball</a>. </i></p>
https://dallas.sbnation.com/texas-rangers/2012/4/5/2926855/2012-mlb-playoff-award-and-world-series-predictionsJP Starkey2012-04-03T19:41:14-05:002012-04-03T19:41:14-05:00Ian Kinsler Extension Dependent Upon Robinson Cano?
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<p>The <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.lonestarball.com/">Texas Rangers</a> and star second baseman <span>Ian Kinsler</span> continue to discuss a six-year contract discussion, but the completion of that deal may be tied to the next contract of <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.pinstripealley.com/">Yankees</a> slugger (and fellow second baseman) <span>Robinson Cano</span>, <a href="http://mlbbuzz.yardbarker.com/blog/mlbbuzz/the_rangers_kinsler_and_cano/10476499?new_post=true">according to Ken Rosnenthal of Fox Sports</a>. </p>
<p>Kinsler will be paid $7 million in 2012 and has a club option for $10 million in 2013. The team, according to Rosenthal's sources, is wiling to pay him a new annual salary that exceeds that of <span>Dan Uggla's</span> in Atlanta ($12.4 million), but likely not too much further north of that figure.</p>
<p>Cano, meanwhile, is due for a new deal, and the Yankees may be willing to break the bank in order to keep him around. If Kinsler signs a new deal now that falls far short of what Cano will make on his next deal, he's likely selling himself short - because, as Rosenthal points out, the two are at least comparable in terms of merit.</p>
<p>GM Jon Daniels, meanwhile, does not expect to sign any contract extensions prior to opening day.</p>
<p>This one is worth keeping an eye on.</p>
<p><i style="font-weight: bold;">For all your Rangers news and notes, check out <a href="http://www.lonestarball.com/">Lone Star Ball</a>. </i></p>
<p><iframe frameborder="0" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/videoseries?list=PL6969C40420638137&hl=en_US" height="315" width="560"></iframe></p>
https://dallas.sbnation.com/texas-rangers/2012/4/3/2923932/ian-kinsler-extension-rumors-robinson-canoField Yates2012-04-03T13:00:54-05:002012-04-03T13:00:54-05:00Rob Neyer Picks Yu Darvish To Win Rookie Of The Year
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<p>You will probably see this sort of thing <a target="new" href="http://www.lonestarball.com/2012/4/3/2922459/keith-laws-2012-predictions">all over</a> at this point, but <a target="new" href="http://mlb.sbnation.com/2012/4/3/2922649/2012-mlb-preview-rookies-of-the-year-bryce-harper-yu-darvish-zack-cozart-matt-moore">Rob Neyer just posted his Rookie of the Year predictions</a> at Baseball Nation, and is quite fond of the Rangers’ newest pitcher.</p>↵<blockquote>↵<p>[Yu Darvish’s eight Spring Training walks] is the only negative. In Darvish’s entire career.</p>↵<p>Yes, this might indicate a problem. Cameron argued that Darvish might become a nibbler, like Daisuke Matsuzaka. Sure, he might. But what seems more likely? That Yu Darvish will suddenly become a fundamentally different pitcher, or that Matt Moore isn’t quite ready to dominate the best hitters in the world for six months without any serious bumps?</p>↵<p>I love Matt Moore. You have to love Matt Moore. But he’s a rookie pitcher with all of 52 innings of experience above Class AA.</p>↵<p>Most years, Moore would be my No. 1 Rookie of the Year candidate. Just not this year.</p>↵</blockquote>↵<p>I agree, but I am biased, and I am not Rob Neyer.</p>↵<p>If this happens, though, we're going to have to endure arguments about the letter of the award ("He is technically a rookie!") vs. the spirit of the award ("He has several years of experience in a major league!").</p>
https://dallas.sbnation.com/2012/4/3/2923003/rob-neyer-picks-yu-darvish-to-win-rookie-of-the-yearRobbie Griffin2012-04-03T11:13:57-05:002012-04-03T11:13:57-05:00CAIRO's Final Update Still Picks Rangers
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<p><a target="new" href="http://dallas.sbnation.com/texas-rangers/2012/3/27/2905903/2012-texas-rangers-projections-cairo">Last week</a> I gave you the run down of what the <span class="caps">CAIRO</span> forecast system thinks of the 2012 Texas Rangers.</p>↵<p><a target="new" href="http://www.rlyw.net/">Today</a>, Replacement Level Yankees Weblog updated their forecasts a bit, and the result is still very pro-Rangers.</p>↵<p>There aren’t a lot of changes here. Texas is given 93 wins, a ceiling of 103, and at 54.2%, they are considered more likely to win the AL West than not. Most notably, their 84% chance of making the playoffs is the highest of any team in baseball.</p>↵<p>They include a link to the spreadsheet with all the projected player stats if you’d like to browse it. I have not looked at it too thoroughly yet, I have only noticed that they project Yu Darvish to be slightly better than they did a few months ago; still a top three pitcher in the American League.</p>
https://dallas.sbnation.com/2012/4/3/2922709/cairos-final-update-still-picks-rangersRobbie Griffin2012-03-30T14:22:23-05:002012-03-30T14:22:23-05:002012 Texas Rangers Projections: Steamer
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<p>The last forecast we are taking an in-depth look at this week is Steamer.</p>
<p>Steamer is operated by a high school statistics professor and two of his former students. They show an intense interest in finding anything other forecast systems do well, things they could do better, and then incorporating them in to their forecast, creating steady improvement.</p>
<p>The result the past two seasons has been the king of forecasting pitching performances. A large part of this is that Steamer uses pitcher handedness and velocity in their projections -- to my knowledge, they are the only system that does this. You can see how that approach worked for them in <a target="_blank" href="http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/rating_the_2010_projections_once_again/">2010</a> and <a target="_blank" href="http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/testing-projections-for-2011/">2011</a>. Steamer is still good on position players, but pitchers are where it shines.</p>
<p>So that is what makes Steamer awesome. <a target="_blank" href="http://steamerprojections.com/blog/downloads/">You can get the spreadsheets for hitters and pitchers here.</a> You can also find Steamer projections on every player page on FanGraphs.</p>
<p>Now on to what Steamer has to say about the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.lonestarball.com/">Rangers</a>.</p>
<p>Steamer, like the rest, is down on Mike Napoli continuing his explosive 2011 performance. Their .268/.357/.527 slash line with 29 home runs comes out to a .378 weighted On Base Average. Beyond that, it gives Napoli 100 more plate appearances than he had in 2011, but the result is still around 15 fewer runs created for the Rangers.</p>
<p>Steamer is very high, however, on <span>Josh Hamilton</span> improving in 2012. They give him roughly the same line as Napoli, but from the less advantageous side of the plate in Arlington, his wOBA comes out to .384. There is no increase in health, but Steamer's improvement seen in Hamilton makes up for most of Steamer's projected decline in Napoli. (As a quick note, these wOBA numbers don't quite match up with FanGraphs, because FanGraphs does not do hand-specific park adjustments.)</p>
<p>The rest of that difference is made up by Nelson Cruz also improving to a season more like his 2009 breakout, with improved health. The two corner outfielders alone are enough to make up for <span>Mike Napoli's</span> regression in the Steamer projections.</p>
<p>Steamer is ultra positive on <span>Ian Kinsler</span> repeating his 2011 performance, with the same offense and only slightly less health, it sees him again as one of the best players in baseball. His middle infield partner <span>Elvis Andrus</span> is also given pretty much a repeat of his season before, which is just fine and dandy. There is the typical expected regression of <span>Michael Young</span> and <span>Adrian Beltre</span>, but nothing too bad, and Beltre makes up for most of it with a vast improvement in PAs. Steamer sees massive growth from <span>Mitch Moreland</span>, however. A wOBA over .340 -- which both I and FanGraphs come up with from Steamer -- would make him an adequate every day player, or an excellent platoon option against right handed pitching.</p>
<p>Then there is, of course, the centerfield situation. Steamer believes in <span>Leonys Martin</span> as being a well above-average bat, which would be more than enough given his defensive reputation. That is, again, on such limited information, however, we should cede to the Rangers' best judgement. Steamer thinks <span>Julio Borbon</span> can approach average, but is not so high on Gentry. The platoon of the two would still come out fine here, but less ambitious than in other forecasts. Steamer thinks <span>David Murphy</span> will look more like his first two years in the league, which may not be great, but given how down it is on the other options and how high it is on Hamilton, the best course of action from these numbers might be risking Hamilton's health a bit -- and taking a hit on defense -- to put out the best hitting outfield possible.</p>
<p>Overall, Steamer comes out very, very high on the position players. As I said, though, its strength is on pitchers, and with that in mind, here is the no-nonsense list of how the rotation options fare.</p>
<p></p>
<table class="MsoTableGrid" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: medium none;" border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" height="174" width="420"><tbody>
<tr>
<td style="width: 80.2pt; border: 1pt solid windowtext; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="107">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center"><b>Pitcher</b></p>
</td>
<td style="width: 41.4pt; -moz-border-top-colors: none; -moz-border-right-colors: none; -moz-border-bottom-colors: none; -moz-border-left-colors: none; -moz-border-image: none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="55">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center"><b>IP</b></p>
</td>
<td style="width: 35.8pt; -moz-border-top-colors: none; -moz-border-right-colors: none; -moz-border-bottom-colors: none; -moz-border-left-colors: none; -moz-border-image: none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="48">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center"><b>K/9</b></p>
</td>
<td style="width: 38.95pt; -moz-border-top-colors: none; -moz-border-right-colors: none; -moz-border-bottom-colors: none; -moz-border-left-colors: none; -moz-border-image: none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="52">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center"><b>BB/9</b></p>
</td>
<td style="width: 39.75pt; -moz-border-top-colors: none; -moz-border-right-colors: none; -moz-border-bottom-colors: none; -moz-border-left-colors: none; -moz-border-image: none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="53">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center"><b>HR/9</b></p>
</td>
<td style="width: 35.8pt; -moz-border-top-colors: none; -moz-border-right-colors: none; -moz-border-bottom-colors: none; -moz-border-left-colors: none; -moz-border-image: none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="48">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center"><b>ERA</b></p>
</td>
<td style="width: 35.8pt; -moz-border-top-colors: none; -moz-border-right-colors: none; -moz-border-bottom-colors: none; -moz-border-left-colors: none; -moz-border-image: none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="48">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center"><b>FIP</b></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 80.2pt; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; -moz-border-top-colors: none; -moz-border-right-colors: none; -moz-border-bottom-colors: none; -moz-border-left-colors: none; -moz-border-image: none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="107">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center"><b>Colby Lewis</b></p>
</td>
<td style="width: 41.4pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="55">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">182</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 35.8pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="48">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">7.42</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 38.95pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="52">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">2.49</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 39.75pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="53">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">1.3</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 35.8pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="48">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">3.92</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 35.8pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="48">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">4.22</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 80.2pt; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; -moz-border-top-colors: none; -moz-border-right-colors: none; -moz-border-bottom-colors: none; -moz-border-left-colors: none; -moz-border-image: none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="107">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center"><b>Derek Holland</b></p>
</td>
<td style="width: 41.4pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="55">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">180</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 35.8pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="48">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">7.42</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 38.95pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="52">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">3.23</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 39.75pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="53">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">1.0</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 35.8pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="48">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">3.99</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 35.8pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="48">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">4.00</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 80.2pt; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; -moz-border-top-colors: none; -moz-border-right-colors: none; -moz-border-bottom-colors: none; -moz-border-left-colors: none; -moz-border-image: none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="107">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center"><b>Yu Darvish</b></p>
</td>
<td style="width: 41.4pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="55">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">169.1</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 35.8pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="48">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">7.4</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 38.95pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="52">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">2.9</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 39.75pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="53">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">1.1</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 35.8pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="48">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">4.01</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 35.8pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="48">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">3.84</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 80.2pt; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; -moz-border-top-colors: none; -moz-border-right-colors: none; -moz-border-bottom-colors: none; -moz-border-left-colors: none; -moz-border-image: none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="107">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center"><b>Alexi Ogando</b></p>
</td>
<td style="width: 41.4pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="55">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">92</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 35.8pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="48">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">7.23</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 38.95pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="52">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">2.8</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 39.75pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="53">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">1.2</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 35.8pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="48">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">3.92</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 35.8pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="48">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">4.13</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 80.2pt; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; -moz-border-top-colors: none; -moz-border-right-colors: none; -moz-border-bottom-colors: none; -moz-border-left-colors: none; -moz-border-image: none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="107">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center"><b>Matt Harrison</b></p>
</td>
<td style="width: 41.4pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="55">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">178</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 35.8pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="48">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">6.18</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 38.95pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="52">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">3.24</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 39.75pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="53">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">1.0</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 35.8pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="48">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">4.38</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 35.8pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="48">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">4.19</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 80.2pt; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; -moz-border-top-colors: none; -moz-border-right-colors: none; -moz-border-bottom-colors: none; -moz-border-left-colors: none; -moz-border-image: none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="107">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center"><b>Scott Feldman</b></p>
</td>
<td style="width: 41.4pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="55">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">96</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 35.8pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="48">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">5.25</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 38.95pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="52">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">2.84</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 39.75pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="53">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">1.0</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 35.8pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="48">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">4.53</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 35.8pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="48">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">4.43</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 80.2pt; border-right: 1pt solid windowtext; -moz-border-top-colors: none; -moz-border-right-colors: none; -moz-border-bottom-colors: none; -moz-border-left-colors: none; -moz-border-image: none; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="107">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center"><b>Neftali Feliz</b></p>
</td>
<td style="width: 41.4pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="55">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">136</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 35.8pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="48">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">7.4</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 38.95pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="52">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">4.1</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 39.75pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="53">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">1.3</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 35.8pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="48">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">4.33</p>
</td>
<td style="width: 35.8pt; padding: 0in 5.4pt;" valign="top" width="48">
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: center; line-height: normal;" align="center">4.43</p>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<p> </p>
<p>So Steamer is not necessarily that high on the Rangers' rotation, at least not compared to other forecasts. The result is still a good rotation, just not as good as 2011. Holland stays roughly the same to become the best pitcher in the rotation, and Lewis takes a step forward. Both here look somewhat like competent No. 2 starters, while Harrison takes a mighty step backward. It's worth nothing that, while Steamer is down on Darvish from an ERA standpoint, his FIP does not come out too far behind other forecasts, and from that standpoint he would be able to hit TORP territory with more innings.</p>
<p>The Feliz transition may be uninspiring here, but that's still a decent middle of the order starter if he gets a bigger work load. That is the very worst in this rotation, too. This rotation forecast may be a little bit of a buzzkill, but it's not exactly bad, either. It's a good, deep rotation for regular season success, and if just one of these young pitchers were to take a step forward you'd probably be just fine for the postseason, as well.</p>
<p>Unlike some of the other forecasts, Steamer is down on the Joe Nathan signing, thinking him a great closer in a good bullpen.</p>
<p>Given how high Steamer is on the Rangers' position players, this still looks like a very good team overall. There may be some concern raised in the pitching ranks, but that doesn't mean it's worth panicking.</p>
https://dallas.sbnation.com/texas-rangers/2012/3/30/2914243/2012-texas-rangers-projections-steamerRobbie Griffin