SB Nation Dallas - NCAA Predictions 2012: Will The Madness Continue?https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/community_logos/48887/dallas-fave.png2012-03-31T14:45:20-05:00http://dallas.sbnation.com/rss/stream/26380392012-03-31T14:45:20-05:002012-03-31T14:45:20-05:00Bob Knight Probably Fell Asleep During ESPN’s College GameDay
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<p>It happens to everyone. Doesn't matter if it's in class, in the boardroom, listening to your significant other talk incessantly, everyone's been there. You get tired, eyes get heavy, and then all of a sudden your head is slunk down and you're getting your 40 winks.</p>
<p>Of course, not everyone is live on national television like Bob Knight was this afternoon on ESPN's College GameDay.</p>
<p>in dire need of a five-hour energy, ESPN finishes their cut away from a previous interview and brings it back to their main set with Bob Knight and the boys. Digger Phelps' comes up with the homeboy lifetime achievement award as a quick nudge to Knight's elbow gets the fiery head coach alert and back to attention.
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<p>Get the man some coffee, a Mountain Dew, 5-Hour Energy or anything to at least keep the man awake during the proceedings. Now excuse me while I take my nap.</p>
https://dallas.sbnation.com/2012/3/31/2916674/bob-knight-probably-fell-asleep-during-ESPN-college-gamedayEddie Maisonet2012-03-22T08:01:27-05:002012-03-22T08:01:27-05:00Sweet 16 Predictions: Florida, Cincinnati, Syracuse, Michigan State
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<p><i>Games I Have Some Feel For</i></p>
<p><b>Florida (+1.5) vs. Marquette, 9:15 CST</b></p>
<p>When you look at the talent on the floor, there's really no comparison. At every position, except the point (<a href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-basketball/players/99676/darius-johnson-odom" class="sbn-auto-link">Darius Johnson-Odom</a> vs. <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-basketball/players/53420/erving-walker" class="sbn-auto-link">Erving Walker</a>), the Gators trot out substantially better players. However, that one mismatch in Florida's favor is a big one.</p>
<p>Generously listed at 5'8", Walker is effective when he plays within himself. However, he has a penchant for erroneously sensing that he should take over the game when it gets close despite sharing the floor with two potential lottery picks (Brad Beal and <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-basketball/players/123531/patric-young" class="sbn-auto-link">Patric Young</a>). He is legitimately the 5th most talented option on the floor in the starting line-up. Yet Billy Donovan is content to allow Walker to fire up 30-foot <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-basketball/players/28248/jimmer-fredette" class="sbn-auto-link">Jimmer Fredette</a> heat checks like it's a Harlem Globetrotters act.</p>
<p>If the game is close, bad things could happen. However, in college basketball, I will always go with talent, and Florida's is overwhelming. <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-basketball/players/123854/jae-crowder" class="sbn-auto-link">Jae Crowder</a> has gotten his name shouted a few times by Dick Vitale, but his lack of handle will hurt him in this game. The only thing preventing a Florida win is a Billy Donovan-Erving Walker assault against reasonable basketball.</p>
<p><b>Cincinnati (+7.5) vs. Ohio State, 8:45 CST</b></p>
<p>If you didn't already know, you should know after having watched Ohio State play against legitimately large big men: <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-basketball/players/124094/jared-sullinger" class="sbn-auto-link">Jared Sullinger</a> is trash. Watching him attempt to post up people bigger than him was laughable. He stepped out early and knocked down a couple threes, and trashed up a miracle shot from the block near the end of the game, but during the 35 minutes in between, he was revealed for what he is -- a nailed to the floor 6'8" post who can't get his shot against bigger players. If Pangos didn't turn in the worst guard performance of the tournament on both ends of the floor, Gonzaga wins that game.</p>
<p>This round, Sullinger gets Yancy Gates. Gates is bigger and meaner and will, I dare say, "<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5gpS7PSYWcM">zip him up</a>." The rest of the team will again have to pull this one out for the Buckeyes. As far as that goes, pardon me if I don't think <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-basketball/players/124097/aaron-craft" class="sbn-auto-link">Aaron Craft</a> will have another career game against a rugged Cincy defense; Pangos couldn't hold half the dudes on the floor in my pick-up games. Ohio State could find a way with DeShaun Thomas proving a tough match for everyone of late, and Cincy's offense bordering on the terrible but the talent disparity isn't too immense.</p>
<p>Cincy will cover. Will they win? Unclear if they have the offensive firepower to challenge a solid defense.</p>
<p><b>Syracuse (-4.5) vs. Wisconsin, 7:15 CST</b></p>
<p>Wisconsin plays a brand of basketball that requires you either get ahead of them early or beat them at their own game to win. Their defense isn't particularly strong, but they slow the game down to make up for their lack of talent, giving their opponents fewer opportunities to put together quick runs. Syracuse has more talent, and the veteran backcourt should have the patience and discipline to beat Wisconsin in a fairly close game whose spread they will cover via late free throws.</p>
<p><i>Don't Take This One to the Bank</i></p>
<p><b>Michigan State (-5) vs. Louisville, 6:45 CST</b></p>
<p>To be honest, I don't really know what to make of this game. Louisville is playing as well as they have all year, but Michigan State is more talented. Both great coaches, so hard to imagine that will provide much of a difference. If Michigan State takes care of the ball, they will prevail. The line seems pretty accurate, so I'd stay away.</p>
https://dallas.sbnation.com/texas-longhorns/2012/3/22/2892960/sweet-16-predictions-marquette-cincinnati-syracuse-michigan-stateWillie Funk2012-03-18T08:00:31-05:002012-03-18T08:00:31-05:00NCAA Predictions Day 4: UNC, Kansas, Florida State, Xavier
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<p>Now that I've had a few days to warm up, we're gettin' hot here on day 4.</p>
<p><i>THESE WILL ALL HAPPEN</i></p>
<p><b>UNC (-8.5) vs. Creighton</b></p>
<p>Creighton plays no defense. Carolina has the best offense in the country. Carolina's talent level is as high as anyone in the country's, and their players know how to work the mis-matches. This will be as bad as the line Marquette got against UNC during last year's tournament if <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-basketball/players/99813/john-henson">John Henson</a> plays. <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-basketball/players/123401/doug-mcdermott">Doug McDermott</a> can not score on him.</p>
<p><b>Florida State (-2) vs. Cincinnati</b></p>
<p>Both strong defensive teams. Problem is, Florida State can also play a little offense. With Yancy Gates providing Cincy's sole source of consistent offense (and only over the last month and a half), they'll have trouble getting baskets against Florida State's athletic front line.</p>
<p><b>Kansas (-8) vs. Purdue</b></p>
<p>Purdue is my roommates' alma mater, and I have a soft spot for Bob Hummel, but this is a terrible matchup for the Boilers. KU has an advantage at every position and their bigs will have a field day against a very small Purdue team.</p>
<p><i>Small Risk</i></p>
<p><b>Xavier (-3.5) vs. Lehigh</b></p>
<p>Xavier has the better athletes on the perimeter, so this is no Duke. The run comes to an end as McCollum shoots even worse than his over-hyped 9-22 performance against Duke. The shots will be tougher, and Lehigh won't have an answer for Tu Holloway.</p>
https://dallas.sbnation.com/texas-longhorns/2012/3/18/2881371/ncaa-predictions-day-4-unc-kansas-cincinnati-xavierWillie Funk2012-03-17T00:42:35-05:002012-03-17T00:42:35-05:00NCAA Predictions Day 3: Murray State, New Mexico, Gonzaga, Vanderbilt
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<p><i>I'm Going To Call These Two Locks:</i></p>
<p><b>Murray State +5.5 vs. Marquette</b></p>
<p>Murray State should be favored in this game. Some of the best guard play in the country, a swarming defense and the most over ranked/seeded team in the country is the recipe for a win. Marquette is not the trash team Colorado State was, but they will not win, much less cover 5 and a half points.</p>
<p><b>New Mexico +1 vs. Louisville</b></p>
<p>Really not a fan of Louisville. <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-basketball/players/100008/peyton-siva">Peyton Siva</a> has matured into a dependable point guard, and I like <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-basketball/players/52437/kyle-kuric">Kyle Kuric</a> because he is the rare athletic white wing, but they just don't have the firepower of a usual Rick Pitino outfit. New Mexico is strong down low (<a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-basketball/players/53688/drew-gordon">Drew Gordon</a> a future NBA guy) and <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-basketball/players/124011/kendall-williams">Kendall Williams</a> can put Siva on lockdown like he did <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-basketball/players/52634/casper-ware">Casper Ware</a> in their first round matchup.</p>
<p><i>Riskier Territory</i></p>
<p><b>Gonzaga +7.5</b></p>
<p>The Zags are long and athletic down low, which will give the most overrated player in college basketball trouble. The issue in this game will not be controlling dough-boy Sullinger, it will come down to the Zags' inexperienced guards being strong with the ball against Ohio State's pressure. I like Ohio State to win, but Gonzaga should keep it close.</p>
<p><b>Vanderbilt +1 vs. Wisconsin</b></p>
<p>Jeffrey Taylor is an elite athlete and his size should give <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-basketball/players/52390/jordan-taylor">Jordan Taylor</a> fits. Taylor is the key to the Wisconsin attack and with Ezeli down low and Jenkins firing away from the outsides, the Commodores have too much firepower for the Badgers to keep up with.</p>
https://dallas.sbnation.com/texas-longhorns/2012/3/17/2879616/ncaa-predictions-day-3-murray-state-new-mexico-gonzaga-vanderbiltWillie Funk2012-03-15T10:09:18-05:002012-03-15T10:09:18-05:00NCAA Predictions 2012: Lines To Watch On Day 1 Of March Madness
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<p><i>I'm Going To Call These Two Locks</i></p>
<p><b>UNLV (-5.5) over Colorado</b></p>
<p>If the Cal game is any indication, the Pac-12 deserved zero bids. Embarrassing. UNLV is a serious outfit as well. This would shock me if Colorado covered.</p>
<p><b>Murray State (-5.5) vs. Colorado State</b></p>
<p>Murray State has a strong backcourt, and Colorado State is a 22-10 team from a smaller conference. They notched wins against UNLV and New Mexico but nothing stands out as far as their out of conference efforts.</p>
<p><i>Things That Are More Of A Risk</i></p>
<p><b>Montana (+9) against Wisconsin</b></p>
<p>Wisconsin is a solid team, but their talent level isn't remarkably high. They'll win, but this is the largest spread outside of the 1-16 and 2-15 match ups.</p>
<p><b>Kansas State (-5.5) against Southern Miss</b></p>
<p>Kansas State is long, defends and rebounds. They are a different level of athlete, and this could get ugly. Or it could be close, with free throws covering the margin.</p>
https://dallas.sbnation.com/texas-longhorns/2012/3/15/2874032/ncaa-predictions-2012-lines-to-watch-on-day-1-of-march-madnessWillie Funk2012-03-15T10:03:58-05:002012-03-15T10:03:58-05:00Baylor And Texas Should Advance Into The Second Round
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<p><b>Baylor (-8) vs. South Dakota St.:</b> </p>
<p>The Jackrabbits hopped their way into the tournament by being offensively efficient. South Dakota St. hits their field goals, likes to shoot the long ball, and hardly ever turns the ball over. Baylor is also a team that likes to stroke it. And while the Bears don't value ball control, their length allows them to crash the boards in order to earn back the lost possessions.</p>
<p>The Bears struggled in conference play when faced with better opponents than in its weak non-conference schedule. Much of the blame was directed at Baylor's horrendously bad 1-3-1 zone, but the length and athleticism of the Bears can throw into that zone should work well against the midsized Jackrabbit jump shooters.</p>
<p>Baylor's non-conference matchups against similarly ranked opponents (SDSU is ranked 57th by Ken Pomeroy) is a mixed bag. The Bears beat San Diego State and Northwestern by double digits, but barely squeaked by West Virginia and BYU. By contrast, the Jackrabbits haven't faced any team as talented, athletic, and, well, good as the Bears, and that will be the difference. Baylor pulls away in the second half, 85-72. </p>
<p><b>Texas vs. Cincinnati (-2):</b> </p>
<p>Call me a homer, but I picked Texas to advance in my brackets. At the very least, the Longhorns haven't shown much ability to beat good teams, but can at least keep it close. Against its five Big 12 opponents ranked in Ken Pomeroy's top 30, Texas is just 3-9, but six of those losses are by six points or less. Both Texas and Cincinnati slow tempo, suck at shooting, and crash the offensive boards for extra possessions.</p>
<p>Taken all together, I wouldn't be surprised if it was a low-scoring, close-knit affair, again boding well for Texas to at least cover the spread. Texas wins outright if J'Covan Brown has a monster game and the Bearcats never get hot from 3.</p>
<p>One matchup I'll be watching closely is at point guard, with <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-basketball/players/146214/myck-kabongo">Myck Kabongo</a> taking on Cashmere Wright. Kabongo is more talented, but Wright's experience and smarts could befuddle the Texas freshman. I'll say Brown brings his A game and Kabongo manages the game more than hurts it. Texas wins with a huge second half from Brown, 61-56.</p>
https://dallas.sbnation.com/texas-longhorns/2012/3/15/2874021/baylor-south-dakota-state-texas-cincinnati-nate-wolters-perry-jones-iiijc252012-03-14T07:01:24-05:002012-03-14T07:01:24-05:00The Seven Rules To Betting On March Madness
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<p>Plus a look at which first-round match-ups might be worth paying close attention to. </p> <p>In the spirit of March Madness, I've been persuaded to share some of my betting philosophies in relation to the NCAA tournament.</p>
<p><b>Some General Rules:</b></p>
<p>1. Don't look at the lines before forming a first impression.</p>
<p>This is especially true when dealing with teams you've seen play and have a good feel for. Seeing numbers before you look at the teams skews your perception.</p>
<p>2. Make your largest bets on teams you've actually seen play.</p>
<p>Ideally, you will bet only on the teams you've seen play. However, it's hard enough to keep up with the power conferences, let alone the smaller schools. And since it's still fun to bet, you will take that flier on Montana because you heard Doug Gotleib say that on ESPN's bracket show.</p>
<p>3. Don't pick an upset just to pick it.</p>
<p>This is the hardest thing to avoid when either filling out a bracket or wagering on individual games. The allure of picking the upset often overwhelms reason. Do not do this ... unless you're on your 5th free bracket on espn's bracket challenge which you will not win.</p>
<p><b>What to Look at When You Make Your Picks:</b></p>
<p>1. Look at the match-ups!</p>
<p>I cannot stress this enough, and this goes for the team's style of play as well as its personnel. Teams like Baylor have the personnel to play with anyone. However, it is essential to remember they run a terrible 1-3-1 zone despite having an athletic advantage on every team in the tournament outside of Kentucky and North Carolina. This is how they lost to a Duke team they were clearly better than 2 years ago in the Elite 8. And also look at the roster. See who plays. See how they match up in terms of size with their opponent. A supplement/replacement for having seen a team play.</p>
<p>2. Look at a team's turnover difference</p>
<p>Teams won't pull an upset on teams that are more talented than them if they give the ball up more often than their opponent. Opportunistic teams that don't turn the ball over are the kind of well coached teams that can beat a more talented team that is coached by the Ron Zooks of college basketball (Billy Donovan, Scott Drew). This is also why a strong backcourt is so important to a deep tournament run -- if you don't have steady guard play, you'll be gone early -- look for Georgetown to struggle with Belmont's pressure defense and Long Beach State to play composed basketball.</p>
<p>3. Look at teams' schedule</p>
<p>You need to know a team has played against various levels of competition, away from home, in an elimination setting, etc. This does not replace having seen a team play, but you can get an idea of how both the team and its individual players responded in match-ups against teams with different styles and personnel.</p>
<p><b>How to Bet Your Picks:</b></p>
<p>1. Make your bets on the individual games then include the games you're most certain about in a parlay. Only the ones that you would be shocked to lose on.</p>
<p>I am personally a HUGE fan of the parlay wager. "Professional Gamblers" disagree and believe this is a losing bet. They are wrong and clearly lack confidence in their prognostication skills. It's more fun and more potential for profit. However, throwing money at a Colorado State, Lehigh and New Mexico State moneyline parlay is not an acceptable thing to do. Put about half of what you would on a single bet on the parlay.</p>
<p><b>First Impressions Of The First-Round Games:</b></p>
<p>Detroit is a serious team. Kansas cannot be pleased the committee tagged them as a 15 seed. They have a 7 footer and a McDonald's All-American starting and a 6-10 Indiana transfer coming off the bench. If Tyshawn Taylor's fondness for giving the ball to the other team rears its head, watch out. They'll need their wings to come to play and keep <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-basketball/players/99945/thomas-robinson">Thomas Robinson</a> out of foul trouble.</p>
<p>Kentucky could seriously win their opening round game by 60. They also got the shaft in having to play the winner of the best 8-9 game in recent memory. UConn is one of the few teams in college basketball in the same league as UK in terms of pure talent.</p>
<p>Apparently the "real gamblers" loved the Wynn Casino setting New Mexico State at +7 against indiana, and it's down to 4.5 ... whatever that's worth.</p>
<p>Both teams from Colorado will fail to cover.</p>
<p>Baylor has unparalleled potential to lose far earlier than they should</p>
<p>Florida is a dark horse Final Four team; in fact, I would pencil them in if Billy Donovan didn't love watching 4'8" <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-basketball/players/53420/erving-walker">Erving Walker</a> play and shoot 20 times a game</p>
<p>Marquette and Georgetown could go deep or lose really early.</p>
<p><i>Come back to <a href="http://dallas.sbnation.com/">SB Nation Dallas</a> later in the week for Willie's first round picks and follow all the latest breaking news and notes from March Madness and SBN's<a href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-basketball"> </a><a href="http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cts=1331718207596&ved=0CC8QFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.sbnation.com%2Fncaa-basketball&ei=P2hgT9_cJsnO2gWqmpmtCA&usg=AFQjCNFKw9D3R8Ii9W1wBMucW4nOdcOIdg">college basketball news hub</a>.</i></p>
https://dallas.sbnation.com/2012/3/14/2870276/the-seven-rules-betting-march-madnessWillie Funk