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NFL Week 11 picks

SB Nation Dallas pick guru JP Starkey returns and picks each and every NFL game in Week 11, both straight up, and against the spread.

Steve Mitchell-US PRESSWIRE

And we're back!

It's hard to believe we're just days away from Thanksgiving Day, which means Cowboys fans will be treated to two games in the next four days. Still, we've got to get through Week 11 before we can look ahead to Week 12, and as always, I'm here to pick each and every game of the week, with 100%* accuracy.

Arizona Cardinals (+10) at Atlanta Falcons -- So, the undefeated dream is over for the Falcons, and to be honest, that's probably a good thing for a team that has struggled in the playoffs recently.

Arizona simply isn't good. Poor Larry Fitzgerald needs a quarterback, or else some of the prime years of his career will end up wasted.

Falcons win, but Cardinals hang around long enough to cover.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1) at Carolina Panthers -- Someway, somehow, the Buccaneers are firmly in the NFC playoff picture, while Cam Newton and the Panthers are wondering what went wrong.

Doug Martin is a beast, and carries the Buccaneers to a win. Tampa Bay covers, too.

Cleveland Browns (+8) at Dallas Cowboys -- Can you say trap game? I can. Trap game. That wasn't so tough to say, now was it?

Dallas is going to win this game, but Trent Richardson will have a pretty good game and keep it close for the Browns. Cleveland covers.

Green Bay Packers (-3.5) at Detroit Lions -- Aaron Rodgers' Discount Doublecheck will be in full force on Sunday. It's a bit amazing that the Packers are only a 3.5 favorite, but they have been pretty inconsistent this year... I guess.

Packers win, and cover.

Jacksonville Jaguars (+16) at Houston Texans -- Unless we're talking 2007 Patriots, I'm not taking anybody to cover such a huge spread. 16 points is absurd, even for one of the best teams in the league against one of the worst teams.

Texans win, but Jacksonville finds someway to cover.

Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5) at Kansas City Chiefs -- Homefield doesn't really mean that much if you're the Chiefs, and employing one of the most anemic offenses we've seen in recent history.

Unlike Kansas City, the Bengals have a pretty good offense, centered around ginger quarterback Andy Dalton and A.J. Green. Bengals win, and cover.

New York Jets (+3.5) at St. Louis Rams -- Two franchises headed in opposite directions? The Rams aren't out of the doldrums yet, but Jeff Fisher seems to have turned the climate around there, and Sam Bradford is starting to look like an actual NFL quarterback.

Contrast that with Rex Ryan's circus, and Mark Sanchez' imminent benching, and well, it's a disaster.

Rams win, but Jets cover.

Philadelphia Eagles (+3.5) at Washington Redskins -- No Michael Vick, and in a couple months, no Andy Reid... right? Right.

I have absolutely no idea what to make of Nick Foles. I do know that the Redskins defense isn't anything special, and I do think that the Eagles are more talented than the Redskins.

Philadelphia in the upset.

New Orleans Saints (-4.5) at Oakland Raiders -- The Raiders aren't good. I don't know how many times I can say this, but they aren't. Just when you think they might be something, they're not. Carson Palmer is probably not the answer.

Saints win, and cover, and march one step closer to an improbable playoff run.

San Diego Chargers (+8) at Denver Broncos -- So we can all agree that Philip Rivers isn't that good, and Norv Turner is going to be fired in January, yeah?


Sunday is the token game where the Chargers leaving everybody asking, "What if they're for real? What if this is another run?"

Chargers upset the Broncos.

Indianapolis Colts (+9) at New England Patriots -- Let the Aqib Talib era begin! It'll be interesting to see how Bill Belichick utilizes his latest and greatest defensive toy with a secondary that desperately needs the help.

Even though Aaron Hernandez is out (again), Tom Brady puts up 30+ points, the Patriots win, and win easily. Pats cover.

Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers -- No Ben Roethlisberger? Bleh. Without him, we're left with a pretty underwhelming rivalry matchup.

Pittsburgh will still try really, really, really hard, but Baltimore wins, and covers.

Chicago Bears (+7) at San Francisco 49ers -- Like the Sunday night game, Monday Night Football's contest features a team without its starting quarterback, ruining an otherwise tasty matchup.

I'm not a believers in the Bears, and I'm especially not a believer in the Jason Campbell Bears. Niners win, but Bears cover.

Agree? Disagree? Feel free to follow JP Starkey on Twitter, and make your picks below in the comments section.

Photographs by jamesbrandon, jdtornow, phlezk, flygraphix, mcdlttx, tomasland, and literalbarrage used in background montage under Creative Commons. Thank you.