NFL Week 5 picks

No, the Dallas Cowboys aren't playing in Week 5, but I'm back with Week 5's picks regardless. Last week, I went 11-3 straight up, so we'll see if I can improve on that here in Week 5.

Miami Dolphins (+3) at Cincinnati Bengals -- You sort of have to feel bad for the Dolphins. They played their tails off in Week 4, completely dominated the Arizona Cardinals, and came away with a big, fat, overtime loss.

I don't see the Dolphins outplaying the Bengals in Week 5. Andy Dalton and A.J. Green are really turning into something, and I doubt if Miami has the answer.

Bengals win, and cover.

Green Bay Packers (-7) at Indianapolis -- No, the Packers haven't looked good this year, but the Colts are still a work in progress. Green Bay is still a Super Bowl contender to me, and the Colts are whatever for 2012.

Even on the road, I'll take the Pack to win -- and cover.

Baltimore Ravens (+6.5) at Kansas City Chiefs -- Sort of a trap game here for the Ravens. Yeah, they're the better team, and yeah, Kansas City has looked awful, but Matt Cassel will be playing for his job, and the Chiefs will be looking for a statement win.

That said, I don't see Kansas City winning. I'll take the Ravens to win, but the Chiefs to cover.

Cleveland Browns (+8.5) at New York Giants -- Big Blue is hurting a bit, and Hakeem Nicks will be missing yet another game. Cleveland hasn't really played that poorly in their losses, and they've had opportunities to win a few games.

Still, they're not better than the Giants. Trent Richardson is still a bad ass, but the Giants win. I'll take the Browns to cover, though.

Philadelphia Eagles (+3.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers -- This could be one of the better games of the day, and certainly one of the most difficult to forecast. The Eagles haven't looked good this year, but I'm not really sure I'm buying the Steelers either.

I'll take Pittsburgh, just because Michael Vick has looked like poo so far. The Steelers will win, and cover.

Atlanta Falcons (-3.5) at Washington Redskins -- I've been impressed as anybody with the Falcons' play so far in 2012, and making them my pre-season Super Bowl pick is looking pretty good at the moment.

I don't see the Redskins hanging with the Falcons on Sunday. I like Robert Griffin III as much as the next guy, but he can't play defense, and the Falcons will score enough to win -- and cover.

Seattle Seahawks (+3) at Carolina Panthers -- The Seattle roller coaster is pretty crazy this year, huh? Sure, they should have one less win and one more loss, Seattle's problem is at the quarterback position, and I just don't see Russell Wilson getting much better.

I'll take the Panthers at home, to win and cover.

Chicago Bears (-6) at Jacksonville Jaguars -- The Jaguars might be the worst team in the NFL. In fact, I'm pretty certain that they are. Blaine Gabbert simply isn't good, and Jacksonville's defense isn't too hot, either.

I don't think the Bears are awesome, but they're better than the Jaguars. By a lot. Chicago wins, covers.

Denver Broncos (+6.5) at New England Patriots -- Tom Brady vs. Peyton Manning. Again. This should be a pretty good game, but the Patriots are simply the better team, and Brady is simply the better quarterback, especially at this point in their careers.

New England will come away with the win, but the Broncos will cover.

Buffalo Bills (+10) at San Francisco 49ers -- Yikes. How awful did the Bills look last week? They looked pretty good for a half, and then the wheels totally fell off the wagon.

That said, I don't think they're totally awful. And I don't think the 49ers are by far the class of the NFC like many do. I'll take San Francisco to win, but Buffalo to cover.

Tennessee Titans (+5.5) at Minnesota Vikings -- The Vikings just seem to find ways to win in 2012. Christian Ponder does a good job of not turning the ball over, and doing just enough to win games.

Jake Locker will be out for Tennessee, and I don't really know if that's a bad thing or not -- I'm a Matt Hasselbeck fan.

Give me the Vikings at home, but I'll take Tennessee to cover.

San Diego Chargers (+4) at New Orleans Saints -- Man, what a fall from grace for the Saints. Once the media darling of the NFL, the Saints now find themselves 0-4 following the bounty scandal.

It's tough to justify picking an 0-4 team, but the Saints will notch their first win on Sunday night -- and cover the spread, too.

Houston Texans (-9) at New York Jets -- I'll avoid piling on the Jets, but when it rains, it pours. I think the Texans are overrated, but whatever.

Texans win, and cover.