Straight Up and Against The Spread (ATS)
NY GIants: 3-3 on the road in 2011, both straight up and ATS; 1-2 in last five games overall. Dallas: 5-1 at home straight up in '11, but only 2-4 ATS; 3-0(SU), 1-2(ATS) in last five overall. Dallas is 2-4 as a home favorite against the spread.
The Giants are 2-6 in last 8 ATS, with double digit failures against Seattle, Philly and New Orleans and victories over Patriots and Green Bay. Cowboys are 3-5 in last 8 ATS, with double digit failures only on the road against Philly and Arizona and victories over Buffalo, St. Louis and New England.
In last five head-to-head meetings, Dallas is 3-2 ATS, 2-3 Straight up against Giants. Dallas is 2-3 both ATS and straight up in last five home games in rivalry.
Scoring
On the road, Giants are allowing 10.5 points in the first half (1.0 and 9.5 per quarter) and 17.3 points in the second half (7.3 and 10.0), for a 27.8 ppg given up average. The Cowboys at home seem to be a slightly better first half team, scoring 15 ppg in the first half (5.7 and 9.3) and 13.1 in the second (4.8 and 8.3) for a total of 28.1 at Cowboys stadium.
At home, Cowboys are allowing 6.3 points in the first half (2.0 and 4.3 per quarter) and 9.7 points in the second half (5.2 and 4.5), for a 16.0 ppg allowed average. The Giants on the road seem to be a much better second half team, scoring 7.8 ppg in the first half (4.0 and 3.8) and 15.8 in the second (4.0 and 11.8) for a total of 23.6 off the plane.
Overall
Current Line (Las Vegas Hilton) Dallas -4.5 O/U 50.5
The current line is exactly the difference between Dallas avg points scored and NY Giants avg points scored on the road. Looking simplistically at all the trends, it would appear that Dallas will take a small lead into halftime, stretch it out by early in the fourth quarter, than have to hang on as the Giants stage a late rally. The rally will bring NY within a score, but the Cowboys should still prevail.
My (Meaningless) Prediction
Cowboys don't cover, but win outright. Cowboys 27 Giants 24.