Post positions can greatly affect the outcome of the Kentucky Derby, and the 2012 Kentucky Derby is no exception. Yesterday, post positions were announced, and odds were altered, as Bodemeister was installed as the clear favorite with 4/1 odds.
Despite that, I'll be picking Take Charge Indy to win the Kentucky Derby. Take Charge Indy has decent odds at 10/1, but he's being ridden by Calvin Borel -- who is a three-time Kentucky Derby champion. Further, Take Charge Indy's post position, at No. 3, suits Borel's riding style well.
Gemologist is one of the few horses with ties to the Dallas Fort Worth area, and at 6/1 odds, he has a pretty good chance to make some waves in this year's derby. Gemologist is the only favored horse starting on the outside, at post position 15, and he very well could be in line to make a charge. I'll take Gemologist to finish second. Gemologist is 5-0, but, I'm not sure if he can win from the outside with such strong horses on the inside.
As for the third place finisher, I'll go with Union Rags, at 9/2 odds to win. Union Rags is the second-favored horse in this year's Derby, and has a solid post position.
To sum, if I were betting on this year's Kentucky Derby, I'd take Take Charge Indy to win, Gemologist to place, and Union Rags to show.