Before the season began, we took a look at Replacement Level Yankee Weblog's projection blowout. They take a combination of forecast systems, and put them together to give one big projection on the season.â†µ
Today they updated their forecast, using the first two weeks of the season to influence their pre-season projections to a degree, and then extrapolating to the rest of the season.
If that's to be trusted, the Rangers' hot start has been enough in just 16 games to launch them in to another stratosphere of performance. The original forecast saw them as a good team, and the favorites in their division. This updated forecast sees 99 wins as their new most likely performance. That's more than an eight win performance from the pre-season, the largest of any team in their update. Their chances of winning the division now place at nearly four out of five.â†µ
99 wins, of course, is pretty close to what someone else came up with before the games were played.â†µ
The Angels, meanwhile, have already dropped a still-whopping five games in expected record in this young year. They're now seen as an 85 win team. The Rangers would top 85 wins if they went .500 the rest of the way.â†µ
You don't need a lot more reasons to feel good about the Texas Rangers right now, but here's some solid evidence for not simply dismissing these 16 games as "it's still early."â†µ