Replacement Level: Rangers Have Gone From Good To Great

Before the season began, we took a look at Replacement Level Yankee Weblog's projection blowout. They take a combination of forecast systems, and put them together to give one big projection on the season.

↵

Today they updated their forecast, using the first two weeks of the season to influence their pre-season projections to a degree, and then extrapolating to the rest of the season.

↵

If that's to be trusted, the Rangers' hot start has been enough in just 16 games to launch them in to another stratosphere of performance. The original forecast saw them as a good team, and the favorites in their division. This updated forecast sees 99 wins as their new most likely performance. That's more than an eight win performance from the pre-season, the largest of any team in their update. Their chances of winning the division now place at nearly four out of five.

↵

99 wins, of course, is pretty close to what someone else came up with before the games were played.

↵

The Angels, meanwhile, have already dropped a still-whopping five games in expected record in this young year. They're now seen as an 85 win team. The Rangers would top 85 wins if they went .500 the rest of the way.

↵

You don't need a lot more reasons to feel good about the Texas Rangers right now, but here's some solid evidence for not simply dismissing these 16 games as "it's still early."

↵

Trending Discussions

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior users will need to choose a permanent username, along with a new password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

I already have a Vox Media account!

Verify Vox Media account

Please login to your Vox Media account. This account will be linked to your previously existing Eater account.

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior MT authors will need to choose a new username and password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join SB Nation Dallas

You must be a member of SB Nation Dallas to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at SB Nation Dallas. You should read them.

Join SB Nation Dallas

You must be a member of SB Nation Dallas to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at SB Nation Dallas. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.