After a four-run win on the road to maintain the league's best record and a multi-game lead over everyone in the division, if you were to head over to Baseball Prospectus's Playoff Odds Report, your already-high hopes might just soar.â†µ
By their estimation, the Rangers are already slightly better than 70% to win the American League West, with a better than 90% shot to at least be one of the two Wild Card teams. Both figures are the highest of anyone in baseball.
That probably looks a little huge, but it shouldn't. Yes, there is a very long season still to go. Yes, the Angels still could overcome the early deficit, but a 30% shot is large enough that no one should be too surprised if it happens.â†µ
Still, Anaheim is already 3.5 back of Texas, and they have not exactly been losing to good teams, with four losses to the Royals and Twins. BP's PECOTA forecast -- like most -- had the Angels and Rangers very close, with a slight edge to Texas. If that's accurate, Anaheim would have to play better than they really are and/or the Rangers worse over the next 154 games to make up that ground. That's certainly possible, just not very likely. The Playoff Odds Report reflects that.â†µ
It also might be too conservative, since Cool Standings has Texas closer to 76% to win the division at this point. Both expect them to have the best record in the league, though not by much in the case of BP.â†µ