The Longhorns are going in to the locker room right now down 11 to Arizona in the second round of the 2011 NCAA Tournament. It's bad, but there are a couple reasons to not to panic.â†µ
- 54.5%: That's what Arizona is shooting from beyond the arc, accounting for 18 of their points. On the season they're 39.6%, still great but far from what they're hitting today. Texas, meanwhile, allowed just 28.7% on the season as the second best three point defense in the country. Unless one of the teams is just completely different today, there's reason to expect that number to fall. â†µ
- 0%: That's what Texas is doing on their threes. Arizona is an elite three point defense, almost as good as Texas, but that's still more likely an aberration than a sign of today's game going forward. â†µ
- 10: Texas turnovers, to just three by Arizona. Arizona is not a particularly good defense at creating turnovers, and Texas is one of the best in the nation at avoiding them. Just like those three point rates, the turnovers are likely more bad luck than the Longhorns just falling apart for a day. â†µ
Those are, of course, the reasons Texas is down, and 11 points at the half is a scary margin. But it's also surmountable, and can be done so with just some regression to the mean (and some stepping up, not trying to forgive Texas entirely of the deficit). Arizona isn't likely to keep sinking everything they throw up, Texas isn't likely to keep bricking everything, and the turnovers are likely to level off a bit. There's cause for concern, but it's not time to panic.