Every year, the numbers get crunched over at Football Outsider in an attempt to forecast the NFL careers of the top NCAA quarterbacks entering the NFL Draft. This year, the top quarterbacks are Andrew Luck and the reigning Heismant Trophy winner, former Baylor Bears QB Robert Griffin III.
While Luck has been assumed to be the top quarterback in the draft for well over a year and considered the most "NFL-ready" of any other college player, in recent months there has been a groundswell of acknowledgment that Griffin may be just as good, if not better, than Luck.
In this year's Lewin Career Forecast (LCF) at Football Outsider, Aaron Schatz crunched the numbers. The result? Griffin not only had the strongest career projection of any QB in this year's draft, but the highest numbers of any player measured by LCF, dating back to 1998.
Griffin and Luck are basically LCF's dream candidates. They're both longtime starters with tons of college experience. Both have strong completion rates. Both get good yardage when scrambling. The biggest difference between the two according to LCF is what happened in their senior year. Luck, who was stellar as a junior, saw his passer rating stay constant. Griffin, on the other hand, improved significantly. The 45.3-point rise in his passer rating as a senior is largest senior improvement in our database (surpassing Jason Campbell, who rose 40.3 points) and the second-largest senior change in our database (behind only Rex Grossman, whose passer rating as a senior dropped 49.3 points). Statistically, Griffin's senior year was better than Luck's, his junior year not as good. This could indicate that Griffin is still improving, still learning, and still getting better, with more room to grow in the pros.
Certainly these are encouraging signs for Griffin supporters. You can click through to the full article for a complete breakdown of what the numbers mean and how the rest of the quarterbacks in this year's draft stack up.