SB Nation Dallas: All Posts by John Stathas

What Happened To Justin Smoak?

2012-09-21T12:02:43Z

Every June, Major League Baseball holds the most under-covered draft in major American professional sports.

The lack of coverage isn't surprising though. Over 50 rounds, 1500 players are taken. Most players don't even sign with the team that drafted them. This particular draft only accounts for American players as well, not the countless Latin American players who can sign with teams at 16-years-old.

With only 750 roster spots in the big leagues, most of these players eventually fade into obscurity. So it's not shocking when a 39th rounder calls it quits after bouncing around the minors for a year or two.

More concerning, however, is when a highly-touted first round draft pick becomes a major league bust. And there really isn't a better example today than former Texas Rangers prospect, and current Seattle Mariner, Justin Smoak.

Smoak was regarded as one of the top five prospects of the 2008 Draft. He was said to be one of the best defensive first basemen in his class and could hit for power and average from both sides of the plate. He was compared to players like Mark Teixeira and Chipper Jones.

Due to fear of his agent asking for too large of a contract, Smoak fell to the 11th pick of the draft. It was a seeming windfall for the Texas Rangers.

In his first full year in the minors, Smoak hit .290 and had an OPS of .853. Entering the 2010 season, Smoak was considered one of the top prospects in baseball. It looked like the Rangers had a superstar in waiting.

He got called up to the show on April 22, 2010 and made his debut the following night. In his first four games, Smoak walked at least once in each game, setting a franchise record while displaying an encouraging amount of patience at the plate. He smacked his first home run on April 29 and his first right-handed home run four days later.

But Smoak would set another franchise record on June 13th, when he became the first Ranger to strike out five times in a game. A performance like that from a 23-year-old isn't shocking, but perhaps it was enough for the Rangers to consider this future superstar a tradable commodity.

And trade him they would.

Less than a month after his record-setting "platinum sombrero" performance, the Rangers dealt Smoak to the Seattle Mariners for Cliff Lee. The move would eventually propel Texas to their first World Series appearance.

While Cliff Lee was pitching the Rangers to a Pennant, Smoak was back in the minors. He would eventually be called up again on September 18 and hit .340 with three home runs in Seattle's final 14 games. It looked like the Rangers may have traded a future star for a rent-a-player.

However, 2011, Smoak's first full year in the majors, was nothing short of a disappointment. In 123 games, he hit a dismal .234. While he did show some power potential with 24 doubles and 15 home runs, his batting average was nowhere near what many projected.

The 2012 season would have to be Smoak's redemption. Unfortunately for Seattle fans, it got even worse. Smoak is currently hitting .202, one bad game away from dipping below the Mendoza Line. He was hitting .189 in July when Seattle sent him back to the minors. Eventually, Smoak returned to the bigs, but only after an injury to first baseman Mike Carp.

So why did Smoak bust?

Answer: Who knows?

But there is a reason 1500 players are drafted every year by only 30 teams: everyone can't hit major league pitching and everyone can't get major league hitters out. That's why baseball has a far more expansive farm system than any other major sport. Each team has at least four minor league affiliates, and that doesn't include the Latin American academies or Asian leagues.

A great high school or college player isn't necessarily going to translate that talent to the major leagues. Nobody knows why exactly. Maybe he can't hit the curve or catch up to the fastball. Or perhaps he can throw 95mph, but can't locate it or develop complimentary pitches. It's just the way it is.

There are plenty of players from the 2008 first round who are performing in the majors: Buster Posey (5th pick), Lance Lynn (39), Wade Miley (43), Brett Lawrie (16), Jemile Weeks (12), Yonder Alonso (7).

There are also a few who showed some potential, but have faded since: Eric Hosmer (3), Ike Davis (18), Brian Matusz (4), Daniel Schlereth (26).

But there are also 35 other first rounders from 2008 that you've never even heard of.

Nobody knows what the Rangers were thinking when they decided Smoak was worth dealing. Maybe it was the five strikeout game, or maybe it was the fact they had two other youngsters at first base (Chris Davis and Mitch Moreland).

More than likely it was a combination of both. But whatever the case may be, Texas saw something that Seattle didn't.

To the Rangers, dealing this prospect was worth a World Series appearance. And in hindsight, it looks like it was.

Earlier this summer, Texas refused to give up third/first base prospect Mike Olt for a frontline starter. The Rangers were in almost the exact same situation as 2010: in need of an ace for a postseason run.

But Olt didn't make his debut until after the trade deadline, so the Rangers really hadn't seen what he could do against big league pitching. They also have an aging Beltre with no other prospect waiting in the wings. Perhaps that was the difference this time around.

The Rangers may in fact have a star in the making. On the other hand, maybe they missed an opportunity to sell high.

Only time will tell. But until then, your guess is as good as mine.

RG3 Shines, Brandon Weeden Doesn't In Week 1

2012-09-11T13:00:42Z

Quarterbacks:

Robert Griffin III (Baylor)

RG3 tore it up in his rookie debut, throwing for 320 yards and two touchdowns with no interceptions. He became the first player in NFL history to throw for over 300 yards and have two touchdown passes with no interceptions in his first game. Although he put these numbers up against a Saints defense in complete disarray from their offseason problems, Griffin proved he can succeed at this level and the Redskins may have finally found a franchise quarterback.

Andy Dalton (TCU)

After an impressive rookie season, Dalton was out to build on his success in Baltimore against a Ravens team primed for a Super Bowl run. However, he was less than impressive Monday night, throwing for 221 yards and an interception. The Red Rifle looked sharp in the first half, but was unable to build any momentum in the second half. The Bengals will need him to mirror his success from last season if they want to make the playoffs in an always tough AFC North division.

Sam Bradford (OU)

He didn't put up gaudy numbers (198 yards, 1 TD), but Bradford was able to drive his team down the field for a go-ahead field goal with 1:55 remaining. Unfortunately, the Rams defense was unable to hold the lead and gave up the game-winning touchdown. Bradford is working in a new offensive system this year and his weapons are limited to an aging Steven Jackson and Danny Amendola. In his third season out of Oklahoma, this is the year Bradford needs to take the next step.

Brandon Weeden (Oklahoma State)

It doesn't get much worse than Weeden's performance Sunday. He had the worst quarterback performance of Week One, throwing for only 118 yards and four interceptions with no touchdowns, compiling a microscopic 5.1 QB rating. The 28-year-old rookie was expected to replace former Longhorn Colt McCoy (who the Browns have apparently given up on), but with his atrocious performance Sunday, McCoy may be back in the picture. Even a mediocre performance would have likely pushed the Browns ahead of the Eagles in the one-point loss. A Big 12 quarterback controversy may be in Cleveland's near future.

Running Backs:

DeMarco Murray (OU)

He was nothing short of stellar in the NFL opening game last Wednesday against the Giants. Murray gained 131 yards on only 20 carries, including a 48-yard scamper that set up a touchdown. Murray exploded onto the scene last year and emerged as the Cowboys' top running threat, but his season was cut short by a broken ankle. If Murray remains healthy, he has the potential to become one of the top running backs in the NFL.

Jamaal Charles (UT)

His season ended in week one last year when he tore his ACL. Charles eased back in this week with 16 carries for 87 yards, including one for 46 yards. The revamped Chiefs offense will likely rely heavily on him, but newcomer Peyton Hillis will be sharing the load this season,

Adrian Peterson (OU)

When he tore his ACL late last season, many were skeptical that he could return for a full season in 2012. He silenced the naysayers Sunday with a very solid performance, especially in light of his quick recovery time. He carried the ball 17 times for 84 yards and two touchdowns in a victory over Jacksonville. If he has fully recovered from his knee surgery, his presence will be needed on a rebuilding Vikings team.

Kendall Hunter (Oklahoma State)

After a quiet yet solid rookie season for the San Francisco 49ers, Hunter looks like he may have an expanded role in his sophomore campaign. He had nine carries for 41 yards in Sunday's victory over the Green Bay Packers. He is a very solid backup and is only one Frank Gore injury away from being San Francisco's feature back.

Wide Receivers:

Dez Bryant (Oklahoma State)

Dez led the way for Big 12 receivers in Week One with four receptions for 85 yards, including a 38-yard snatch. Bryant has shown tremendous potential in his young career, but has yet to put together a full season of consistent production. If he can avoid injuries and off-field issues, he can definitely emerge as one of the NFL's top wide receivers.

Michael Crabtree (Texas Tech)

The former Dallas Carter star looks like he may be poised to have a fourth consecutive season of increased production, starting 2012 with seven receptions for 76 yards in a victory over the Green Bay Packers. Crabtree looks like he has solidified himself as San Francisco's number one receiver, even ahead of tight end Vernon Davis.

Danny Amendola (Texas Tech)

After a season-ending triceps injury during the first week of last season, Amendola looks to be back in form and ready to become Sam Bradford's top target in 2012. He had five catches for 70 yards Sunday against the Lions. The Rams have a revamped offense under new head coach Jeff Fisher, and Amendola will be one of the keys to their offensive success. Look for Bradford to lean on his fellow Big 12er this season in what will likely be a career year for the young wideout.

Adrian Beltre Is An Obvious Hall Of Famer

2012-08-31T13:00:33Z

There aren't many human beings that can hit towering home runs in the major leagues. There are probably fewer with the athletic ability to corral 135 mph line drives with only 90 feet to react, and then fire a strike across the diamond to first base. One man can do both, and better than anyone else on the planet.

His name is Adrian Beltre, and he plays third base for the Texas Rangers.

In 2011, when the Rangers signed a 31 year-old third baseman to a six-year $96 million deal, many fans were a little upset. Local talk radio was abound with armchair GMs second guessing the move. "Michael Young is our third baseman!" they shouted. "We should have spent that money on Cliff Lee," they lamented.

Coming off a disappointing World Series loss, where the Rangers learned that pitching is what wins you championships, it's not hard to see why fans had to raise an eyebrow. But what they overlooked was the fact that the Rangers had somewhat quietly signed the best third baseman in baseball today.

In case anyone was still unaware of that fact, Beltre let the world know on this last home stand.

Beltre entered the home stand batting .302 with 19 home runs and 68 RBI. Although any player would kill for these numbers, critics claimed Beltre was amidst a slump because he had managed only one home run through the first 20 days of the month.

The night of August 22, Beltre's bat woke up from its catnap. He crushed three home runs in that game, including two in the same inning.

He wouldn't stop there either. Over the next five games, Beltre would add three more bombs and eight more RBI. In that six-game span Beltre compiled six home runs and 13 RBI. He also peppered in three doubles and a triple.

Did I mention he hit for the cycle August 24 against the Twins? And oh yeah, it was the second one of his career.

Although his offense stole the show this past week, Beltre's glove is what makes him truly great.

Most of the time Beltre's defense is taken for granted because he plays the position so effortlessly at times. But that raises another great point about Beltre: he makes almost every play look routine. The amount of hits he takes away from hitters, including likely doubles, is immeasurable. But the value that adds is well known by his teammates, especially the pitching staff.

Pitchers love Beltre because, in addition to the runs he produces for them, they can turn to his defense when they're in a jam. Say a pitcher is down in the count 2-0 with a runner on first. He'll throw a pitch that has a good chance of being hit hard on the ground. If it's hit at Beltre, it's a double play 10 out of 10 times. Any other third baseman and that percentage is going to drop. Quite the luxury for the Texas hurlers.

But Beltre's glove work doesn't stop with his mastery of the routine. On a nightly basis you can see him making highlight reel plays. It might be an off balance laser throw after charging and bare-handing a soft tapper. Or a maybe a Willie Mays over-the-shoulder basket catch in shallow left.

Watching Adrian Beltre play third base is like watching a magician at times. You simply do not see anyone else in the league making those plays today. Maybe some here and there. But none with the consistency and effortless aura of Beltre.

He may have fell short of making history on August 22 with a fourth home run, but that won't keep him out of the baseball history books. With 335 career home runs, 1194 RBI, and 3 Gold Gloves (and counting), Beltre should be a first ballot Hall of Famer when it's all said and done. And he'll be considered one of the top five third baseman to have ever played the game. Likely fourth behind Stan Musial, George Brett, and Frank Robinson. Nice company.

Even with five forgettable seasons in Seattle's Safeco Field (where bats go to die), Beltre still managed three 25 home runs seasons. He hit 103 home runs while there. If Beltre had spent those five prime years elsewhere, who knows what his career numbers might look like.

But what we do know is that Adrian Beltre is undoubtedly the best third baseman in the game today. He'll likely retain that title for the foreseeable future and be a fixture at third base for the next several seasons. Rangers fans can sleep well at night knowing the hot corner is safe and sound.

Rangers Vs. Orioles: Dempster Impresses In Win

2012-08-21T13:00:36Z

After retiring the first two Baltimore batters of the game on three pitches, Ryan Dempster gave up a double off the right field wall to Nate McClouth. McClouth would score on an Adam Jones line drive to right that skimmed off edge of Mitch Moreland's webbing, giving Baltimore and early 1-0 lead.

But from then on, Dempster looked like the pitcher the Rangers traded two prospects for at the deadline. He had all his pitches working and his sinker was hitting bats like a bowling ball.

Hard hit balls were few and far between; his final line was 8 innings with one run on four hits and two walks to six strikeouts. Many were disappointed when the Rangers didn't pull the trigger on a front line starter last month, but Dempster showed tonight that his cheaper price is unrepresentative of his potential.

The Texas bats remained relatively quiet early on. Adrian Beltre got things going in the fourth with a lead off single and Nelson Cruz followed with a walk. Back-to-back singles by David Murphy and Geovany Soto scored Beltre and Cruz.. Moreland reached on an infield single to load the bases and Kinsler drove a deep sacrifice fly to right that scored Murphy.

Dempster responded to the newly gifted 3-1 lead by pitching a scoreless top of the fifth.

In the bottom of the fifth, Josh Hamilton ripped a line drive single to left and scored from first on a Nelson Cruz double to left-center, pushing the lead to 4-1.

Dempster followed this up by retiring the next nine Baltimore batters to end his night after eight innings.

The Rangers would add an insurance run in the bottom of the eighth. Young smacked a lead off double through the left-center gap and scored on a Murphy single to center to solidify the lead at 5-1.

Joe Nathan, who had been the only pitcher warming up, came in to pitch in the non-save situation. He was dominant himself, striking out the side. Former Ranger Chris Davis ended the game fanning at a 94mph fastball.

Moving forward, if Dempster can continue to build on this momentum, he could help the Rangers push for a #1 seed in the playoffs and solidify a postseason rotation that would look something like this: Harrison, Darvish, Holland, Dempster. Only the Angels feature a better 4-man rotation than the Rangers at this point, and their playoff chances seem to be fading away possibly.

On a tangential note:

I had the privilege Monday night of attending the Rangers Blogger Night. Several of us local Ranger scribes were invited to the game to test drive Fox Sports' new interactive web program: Game Connect.

Game Connect (which can be found here: http://gameconnect.foxsportssouthwest.com/mlb/rangers/) is a hybrid of a typical (and better) webcast you would find at ESPN.com or MLB.com, and a Twitter feed reminiscent of an AOL/Dateline chatroom.

I guess the idea is that you can tweet about the game while following a flashy webcast, but the game tracker is far from adequate. Limited access to in-depth player stats and a useless "gas gauge" for pitch counts are a couple of the numerous shortcomings.

The creator proclaimed that Game Connect wasn't meant to replace the viewing experience of a game, but rather "enhance" it. The main focus of the interface seems to be the Twitter feed. The feed, where any reasonably-minded person would obviously expect to find engaging and insightful commentary, is instead hijacked by an endless barrage of vaguely relevant tweets strung together by yet another commercialized hashtag: #FSRangers

Feel free to give Game Connect a try for yourself and tell me I don't know what I'm talking about. I guess I'll keep watching the game the old fashioned way.

A special thanks to the Texas Rangers and Fox Sports Southwest for hosting the evening. Food, drink, and service was first rate.

Roy Oswalt Dazzles In Rangers Debut

2012-06-23T13:00:17Z

Roy Oswalt's debut was better than any Rangers fan could have rationally hoped for. After not having pitched in a Major League game since October of last year, Oswalt's performance was sharp as could be, earning him his first win of the season.

Physically, Oswalt looked great. He threw 110 pitches on a hot Texas night and his fastball remained solidly at 91-93mph throughout the game. Oswalt was able to command every one of his pitches and worked both sides of the plate like he hadn't missed a beat.

His final line was 6 2/3 innings pitched, allowing one earned run on nine hits with six strikeouts and only one walk. But those numbers don't quite do his start justice.

Looking inside the numbers, Rangers fans (and management) should be very, very pleased with Oswalt's outing. Of his 110 pitches, a ridiculous 81 were strikes. The ideal benchmark is a 2:1 strike to ball ratio, 66.6% strikes. Oswalt was well above that with a 73.6 strike percentage.

And even more ridiculous was the fact that Oswalt got ahead of 14 Colorado hitters 0-2. He only fell behind 2-0 to one batter and only had two 3-ball counts. Getting ahead of batters is the single-most important goal for pitchers. Doing so keeps hitters off balance and almost guarantees success on the mound.

Command and endurance are probably the two biggest concerns one might have for a pitcher coming back from an extended absence such as Oswalt's. In other words, rust. But Oswalt definitely hushed those worries Friday night and looked as if he was right in mid-season form.

Fans shouldn't expect Oswalt to have numbers quite these good for every start, but if he continues to throw strikes at a high rate and can pitch deep into ball games, he'll definitely have continued success going forward.

Oswalt may prove to be the shot in the arm our injury-plagued pitching staff desperately needs. He's a proven veteran pitcher with postseason experience. If he continues to pitch at or around this level, the Rangers may not need to go shopping around the trade deadline. Or at the very least, won't have to be big spenders.

Rangers Vs Rockies: Texas Wins 4-1, Oswalt Impresses

2012-06-23T02:49:27Z

In front a franchise record-tying 21st sellout crowd of the season, the Texas Rangers against the Colorado Rockies. Friday nights have usually been sellouts for the Rangers, but this Friday night had another reason for the sellout: the Ranger debut of Roy Oswalt. He did not disappoint.

The Rangers got out to an early 4-0 lead courtesy of an Adrian Beltre two-run home run in the first and a a Nelson Cruz RBI double and Mike Napoli solo shot in the fourth.

Oswalt pitched better than the Rangers could have asked. He threw six scoreless innings before allowing his first run with two outs in the seventh. Dexter Fowler hit a two-out triple and scored on a Marco Scutaro double, making the score 4-1. That would be the end of Oswalt's night.

Oswalt's final line was 6 2/3 innings with one earned run and nine hits with six strikeouts to only one walk. Of his 110 pitches, a whopping 81 were strikes. Even more telling of Oswalt's performance was the fact that 14 Colorado hitters fell behind 0-2 to Oswalt and only one got ahead 2-0. Additionally, Oswalt only had two 3-ball counts (one a strikeout of Jason Giambi, and the other a walk to Carlos Gonzalez).

Robbie Ross would come in and get Gonzalez to ground out to Ian Kinsler to retire the side. Ross would stay in to pitch the eighth, but only got two outs before he was pulled for Mike Adams. Ross' final line was one inning, two hits and no runs. Adams would give up a hit, but recorded the final out of the inning unscathed.

The Ranger bats were practically silent in the second half of the game, but the four runs scored were plenty behind Oswalt and the bullpen.

Joe Nathan would come in to pitch a 1-2-3 ninth with two strikeouts to record his 16th save of the season, securing a 4-1 victory for the Rangers and Oswalt's first win of the season.

Rangers Vs. Rockies: Roy Oswalt Sharp Through Five As Texas Leads 4-0

2012-06-23T01:31:51Z

The Texas Rangers take on the Colorado Rockies tonight in the much-anticipated Ranger debut of Roy Oswalt. The Rangers, looking to extend their current six-game winning streak, are hoping Oswalt will fill a much needed hole in their injury-ridden pitching staff. So far tonight, he has.

Oswalt got off to a solid start, retiring the first two hitters he faced. Carlos Gonzalez doubled to left on a fly ball that Josh Hamilton lost in the setting sun. Under normal conditions, the ball would have likely been caught. Oswalt shook it off though and struck out Jason Giambi to retire the side.

The Rangers wasted no time getting Oswalt run support. Hamilton reached with a two-out walk. After falling behind in the count 0-2, Adrian Beltre worked a full count and knocked a two-run home run to right to put the Rangers up 2-0.

In the bottom of the fourth Nelson Cruz knocked an RBI double that scored Beltre from first. Cruz was caught in a rundown though trying to advance to third. The baserunning mistake was ill-timed, as the next batter, Mike Napoli, hit a solo home run to right to put the Rangers up 4-0.

Oswalt has pitched very well through the first five innings, allowing no runs and retiring eight in a row at one point. He's allowed only five hits, with four strikeouts and no walks. The biggest reason for his success so far has been his command. Of his 72 pitches, 54 have been strikes and seven Rockies hitters have had to deal with 0-2 counts, while only one has reached a 2-0 count.

MLB Draft 2012: A Rangers Q&A With John Sickels

2012-06-14T12:01:04Z

1) What would you say the Rangers main strategy appeared to be this draft? Were there any trends you noticed (maybe some the casual eye wouldn't have)?

Well in the early rounds, they obviously went upside all the way, putting down bets on high school players with loud tools. They switched to affordable college players in round three and picked up some interesting ones (Preston Beck looks like a particular bargain in the fifth round to me). I think this was a valid strategy since they needed to make the money work out, knowing they would likely have to exceed slot bonuses with some of the early picks. The Blue Jays adopted a similar strategy.

2) Everyone seems to be pretty excited about the Rangers' top five picks this draft. What's your take? Do you think they're worth the hype? Why or why not?

Keep in mind that it takes at least five years before you can judge whether a draft is truly successful or not. If you study the history of the draft, more often than not a team with extra picks in the early rounds ends up taking gambles on raw players and losing those gambles. This can make or break a farm system quite quickly.

Now, the Rangers have a good track record with making their player development work and the system is in strong condition, so in theory they have some slack and can afford to be patient with these guys. I'm particularly interested in seeing how Nick Williams develops. He could be the best of the lot.

I would avoid hype, though. This isn't a group that will pay quick dividends.

3) Rangers fans have recently become very impatient regarding the team's performance (expecting win after win). In an effort to keep that impatience at bay, what do you see as a realistic time frame for some of these high draft picks to reach the show?

You guys are going to have to be patient with the top group. It is easy to follow peer pressure and drool over the tools here, but you have to use some logic, too, and see the possible downsides. Brinson has superb tools but has holes in his swing. Gallo has tremendous power but some scouts think he'll struggle to make contact at higher levels and will need adjustment time. Jarmon is a fine athlete but raw with the bat. Williams may have the best tool set of the entire group but also had the most disappointing spring. Wiles is very projectable but is raw enough that some teams didn't even have him on their draft board.

Every one of the early choices could easily be a five-year development project. You will probably see some of the middle round picks reach the majors more quickly. This is a great group of athletes, but being a great athlete doesn't necessarily mean you'll be a great baseball player. Athleticism may be a necessary condition for baseball success, but it is not a sufficient one.

4) Three of the first five picks are outfielders. Do you think the Rangers targeted them because they anticipate Hamilton and Cruz being gone 3-4 years from now, or just because they were the best on the board when it came time to pick?

There is a good chance that none of the top three outfielders will be ready in three years, so I doubt that factored into it. I think they went with the top guys on their board...you never know what your roster will really look like in three or four years. Too many things can change. If it did factor it, it may have a little in the middle rounds, where guys like Beck or Royce Bollinger might be ready in a couple of years. Their upside isn't as great as the early picks, but they will take less time, not that anyone would expect those guys to step into Josh Hamilton's shoes.

5) Where would you rank the Rangers draft class compared to the rest of baseball?

It is easy to sit here and have an opinion, but I don't like trying to "rank" drafts because it depends on what standards you use and nobody has the same criteria. It is a bold draft, I'll say that much. If it pans out, you have your future lineup core right here.

The upside with the top picks is extremely strong, but so is the risk. If you want tools and athletes and are willing to accept a large amount of risk, this is a tremendous draft at the top. If you want upside hitters, it's great. If you want early round polish and safety, it isn't. If you are trying to build your pitching depth, this isn't a great draft.

If it works, people will look back on this draft and say that it helped build a dynasty. If it doesn't work, people will look back on this draft, as well as some questionable decisions in 2011 and 2010, and say that the gambles emptied the farm system at exactly the wrong time.

For more coverage of the MLB draft, head over to minorleagueball.com, part of the SB Nation/Vox Media Network.